IBM (IBM)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$306.14+2.21%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track IBM free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
IBM is growing revenue about 9% year over year. It aims for over 5% revenue growth annually. The company invests $10 billion in quantum computing over five years. Profit margins and free cash flow remain solid.
IBM's revenue declined from $19.7B in Q4 2025 to $15.9B in Q1 2026. The company is behind its 5% revenue growth target. Legal and capital allocation issues may pressure financials. Valuation is stretched versus peers.
The price is about 26% above our fair value near $242 and 21% below the Street median of $305. Analysts expect about 5.5% revenue growth, slightly above IBM's target but below recent beats. Our view is more cautious on growth sustainability.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $14B in FY25
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 1% in FY25
Breaks if: Investment in quantum falls significantly short of $10B over 5 years
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26
IBM aims to achieve more than 5% constant currency revenue growth for the fiscal year.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue was $15.917B in 2026-Q1, down from $19.686B in 2025-Q4. Despite the recurring focus on achieving over 5% growth, the trajectory shows limited progress with revenue declining in the latest quarter.
“we continue to expect more than 5 percent constant currency revenue growth”
“we are raising our expectations for revenue growth to more than 5%”
“we continue to expect accelerating revenue growth to 5% plus for the full year.”
“we are raising our full-year outlook for revenue growth”