Ingersoll Rand (IR)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-07
$78.70-2.39%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $78.70. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $79 IR trades at 23× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median, but our blended $75 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $80–$103. Note: our $75 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($80–$103). Not investment advice.
$80.00 – $103.00 (median $90.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.20/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $90.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $51.66 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $49.32 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $44.52 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $84.09 | 31.3 | 2.69 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $66.34 | 19.2 | 3.92 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $78.98 | 26.8 | 2.95 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $105.97 | 31.3 | 3.39 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $57.27 | 2.9 | 19.75 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $92.34 | 27.2 | 3.39 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $28.60 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $80.76 | 23.8 | 3.39 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $108.93 | 31.3 | 3.48 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $108.90 | 31.3 | 3.48 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $103.53 | 26.8 | 3.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $129.39 | 31.3 | 4.14 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $124.01 | 26.8 | 4.63 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.