Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ingersoll Rand (IR)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$84.18-0.45%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.90 → 3.95 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of $2.13 to $2.19 billion for 2026 | Profit margins stay strong with adjusted EBITDA near $2.13 to $2.19 billion. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.13 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
IR is an established industrial business with a growth-through-execution focus and active acquisition and capital-return programs. Its long-term thesis is intact, though recent signals have turned mixed after an earnings miss.
The valuation evidence is mixed: IR is described as cheap versus peers, while the broader value assessment calls it expensive. The market’s expectations gap is small, and no evidence points to concentrated fragility in the current setup.
Near term, growth delivery has some support: reported revenue rose 6% year over year and organic growth was 4% in 2026-Q3. However, the latest earnings miss, a run of recent misses, and weaker company momentum temper that evidence; management is stable, while acquisition progress and capital returns have been mixed.
The next call matters because a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative and could lead analysts to lower estimates. Over the multi-year view, execution on IRX and growth remains important, while results and guidance from industrial peers such as GEV, PH, and EMR could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, but confidence is medium: recent operating growth is offset by the earnings miss, weaker momentum, and a headwind from the sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Adjusted EPS targets $3.45 to $3.57 for the year. |
| Under Pressure |
| Adjusted EPS falls below $3.45 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year 2026 revenue growth of 2.5% to 4.5% | A primary condition in Ingersoll Rand's published investment case. The stated target is 2.5% to 4.5% YoY. | Under Pressure | Revenue growth falls below 2.5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 5.62% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 2.5% to 4.5% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20265.621483 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.85 → $3.95 · observed estimates
$8.29B → $8.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.85 | $8,289,813,190 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.85 | $8,296,311,330 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.85 | $8,296,311,330 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.85 | $8,296,311,330 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.85 | $8,289,813,190 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.85 | $8,296,311,330 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.85 | $8,289,813,190 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.85 | $8,289,842,360 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.85 | $8,289,842,360 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.87 | $8,350,913,930 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.89 | $8,457,893,990 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.90 | $8,479,997,840 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.90 | $8,479,997,840 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.84 | $8,376,256,518 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.90 | $8,500,004,639 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.90 | $8,500,000,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.90 | $8,500,000,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.90 | $8,500,000,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.90 | $8,500,000,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.90 | $8,500,000,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.90 | $8,500,250,206 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.90 | $8,500,616,346 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.90 | $8,500,616,346 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.90 | $8,500,616,346 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.90 | $8,521,400,549 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.90 | $8,521,400,549 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.90 | $8,521,400,549 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.90 | $8,521,400,549 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.90 | $8,521,400,549 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.90 | $8,521,400,549 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.90 | $8,515,567,215 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.90 | $8,515,567,215 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.90 | $8,515,567,215 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.90 | $8,515,567,215 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.90 | $8,515,567,215 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.90 | $8,515,567,215 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.90 | $8,515,567,215 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.90 | $8,515,567,215 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.90 | $8,515,567,215 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.91 | $8,515,567,215 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.91 | $8,515,567,215 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.91 | $8,515,567,215 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.91 | $8,515,567,215 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.90 | $8,518,525,549 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.91 | $8,520,548,389 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.91 | $8,520,548,389 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.91 | $8,520,548,389 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.91 | $8,520,548,389 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.91 | $8,520,548,389 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.91 | $8,520,548,389 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.91 | $8,520,548,389 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.91 | $8,520,548,389 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.91 | $8,520,548,389 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.91 | $8,520,548,389 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.92 | $8,547,777,289 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.92 | $8,547,777,289 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.92 | $8,547,777,289 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.95 | $8,603,051,274 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.95 | $8,621,188,940 | 8 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.