Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$270.12-0.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ITW
How strong the business is — where it ranks within its sector on capital efficiency and cash generation, and how well management has been executing.
How this business ranks within industrials on a research-validated quality screen. As of 2026-09-04.
The screen ranks ITW against its sector on four durable signals: share dilution, return on capital, free-cash-flow yield, and FCF margin. Historically the highest-quality names tended toward better typical outcomes and fewer bad years over multi-year holds (strongest at three years, modest at one), and that pattern showed up even before the price moved. It characterizes business quality, not price direction.
Each leg is a sector-relative percentile (higher is better); 4 of 4 legs were available for this name. The composite is built from these four; the raw value follows each percentile for context.
A forward quality tilt, not a price prediction, and context for your own research rather than a recommendation. Not investment advice.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=9249).
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Met or beat guidance 88% of the last 8 guided quarters · -9.9% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Drive organic revenue growth to 3-4% and total revenue growth to 4-5% in 2026, outperforming end markets with strong segment performance and Customer-Back Innovation.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue increased from $4.02B in 2026-Q1 to $4.30B in 2026-Q2 (+6.1%), exceeding prior quarters. Management raised organic growth guidance midpoint by 1.5 points to 3.5% and total revenue growth to 4-5% in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering with accelerating organic growth and raised guidance.
“Raising revenue growth guidance to a new range of 4 to 5 percent, organic growth to 3 to 4 percent”
“Projecting revenue growth of two to four percent and organic growth of one to three percent”
“Projecting revenue growth of two to four percent and organic growth of one to three percent”
“Projecting overall revenue growth of one to three percent, organic growth flat to two percent”
Raise full year 2026 GAAP EPS guidance to a narrowed range of $11.35 to $11.55 per share, reflecting 9% growth at midpoint.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $2.66 in 2026-Q1 to $2.84 in 2026-Q2 (+6.8%). Management raised full year 2026 GAAP EPS guidance by $0.15 to $11.35-$11.55 in 2026-Q2, reflecting 9% growth at midpoint. The trajectory is delivering with consistent EPS growth and raised guidance.
Generate free cash flow exceeding 100% of net income in 2026, supporting capital returns and investments.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Free cash flow increased from $528M in 2026-Q1 to $631M in 2026-Q2 (+41%), with conversion rates improving from 69% to 77% of net income. Management projects free cash flow to exceed 100% of net income for full year 2026. The trajectory shows progress but conversion remains below 100% so far.
“Free cash flow is projected to exceed 100 percent of net income”
Repurchase approximately $1.5 billion of shares in 2026 to return capital to shareholders alongside dividends.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The company repurchased $375 million of shares each quarter in 2025 and returned over $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2026-Q2 including $750 million in repurchases. Management expects to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion in 2026. The trajectory is consistent with stated plans.
ITW has raised its full year 2026 GAAP EPS guidance to a range of $11.10 to $11.50.
Over the trailing year it converted 0.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=6654).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity (low R² over the window).
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3431).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-09-04.
“Raising full year 2026 GAAP EPS guidance by $0.15 to $11.35 to $11.55 per share”
“Raising full year 2026 GAAP EPS guidance by $0.10 to $11.10 to $11.50 per share”
“Initiating 2026 guidance including GAAP EPS in the range of $11.00 to $11.40 per share”
“Narrowing full year EPS guidance range to $10.40 to $10.50”
“Free cash flow is projected to exceed 100 percent of net income”
“Free cash flow is expected to be approximately 100 percent of net income”
“Free cash flow is expected to be approximately 100 percent of net income”
“Free cash flow is expected to exceed 100 percent of net income”
“The company expects to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion of its own shares”
“The company expects to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion of its own shares”
“The company plans to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion of its own shares”
“The company plans to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion of its own shares”
“The company plans to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion of its own shares”