Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-08
$271.06-1.17%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $271.06. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $271 ITW trades at 25× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median, but our blended $242 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $254–$301. Note: our $242 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($254–$301). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $291 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$254.00 – $301.00 (median $263.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 33% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 47.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $10.65/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $263.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $197.06 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $185.61 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $111.33 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $52.03 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $353.25 | 31.3 | 11.30 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $253.98 | 26.8 | 9.47 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $346.83 | 31.3 | 11.09 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $162.71 | 2.9 | 56.11 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $289.42 | 26.1 | 11.09 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $49.80 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $275.78 | 24.9 | 11.09 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $349.84 | 31.3 | 11.19 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $452.70 | 31.3 | 14.48 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $302.19 | 26.8 | 11.27 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $392.70 | 31.3 | 12.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $178.00 | 2.9 | 61.38 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $327.70 | 26.1 | 12.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $312.25 | 24.9 | 12.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $534.10 | 31.3 | 17.09 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $339.32 | 26.8 | 12.66 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $408.56 | 31.3 | 13.07 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $185.19 | 2.9 | 63.86 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $340.94 | 26.1 | 13.07 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $324.87 | 24.9 | 13.07 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.