Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$285.41-2.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ITW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 39 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ITW — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 27, 2026 , Illinois Tool Works Inc. (the "Company") announced its 2026 third quarter results of operations in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1. Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company uses free cash flow to measure cash flow generated by operations that is available for dividends, share repurchases, acquisitions and debt repayment. The Company believes this non-GAAP financial measure, along with free cash flow to net income c…
Why it matters: ITW kept its annual repurchase goal, but the supplied results do not show total purchases so far. The year-end filing can confirm progress.
Watch forThe 2026 annual report shows share repurchases of about $1.5 billion.
Also watch forThe 2026 annual report shows share repurchases well below $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: ITW raised its profit outlook during the year. Margin above the top of its range would show its cost and pricing work gained ground.
Supportive ifThe 2026 annual report shows an operating margin over 27.5%.
Worry ifThe 2026 annual report shows an operating margin under 26.5%.
Why it matters: ITW held its organic growth range after three quarters of uneven results. A full-year result above 4% would show demand stayed strong.
Supportive ifThe 2026 annual report shows organic revenue growth above 4%.
Worry ifThe 2026 annual report shows organic revenue growth below 3%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $222 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,745 loss on $10,000 · 17.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.