Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$270.12-0.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ITW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
ITW — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-13
Other Events. On August 11, 2026, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) among the Company and the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), for which Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC acted as representatives. A copy of the Underwriting Agreement is filed herewith as Exhibit 1.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. On August 13, 2026, the Company issued $1.5 bil…
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin means ITW faces cost issues or is not efficient.
Worry ifOperating margin is less than 26.5%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin is more than 26.5%.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance shows strong profits and good operations.
Supportive ifGAAP EPS guidance raised above $11.55.
Worry ifGAAP EPS guidance remains at or below $11.55.
Why it matters: This shows the company is making cash well. It matches management's goals for spending.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported in Q2 exceeds net income.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported in Q2 is less than net income.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows that ITW makes strong cash. It also helps its plans to return money to investors.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $1 billion in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $1 billion in Q3.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $208 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,745 loss on $10,000 · 17.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance drops, it means profits may be lower. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifFull year EPS guidance revised down to below $11.10.
Less concerning ifFull year EPS guidance remains at $11.10 or higher.
Why it matters: This would indicate ITW is struggling to meet its growth targets in a maturing sector.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported below 2%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported above 2%.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in growth, which could impact future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth was below 3.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic revenue growth was above 3.5%.
Why it matters: A lower EPS means less profit. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 GAAP EPS reported below $2.85.
Less concerning ifQ3 GAAP EPS reported above $2.85.
Why it matters: This shows problems in making cash. It can change how money is spent.
Worry ifFree cash flow conversion reported below 100% of net income.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow conversion reported above 100% of net income.
Why it matters: Fewer buybacks may show less trust in cash flow or market conditions.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks were below $1.5 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal share buybacks were at or above $1.5 billion for 2026.