Johnson Controls (JCI)

NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-07-07

$140.62-1.47%

Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change

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The thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

The bull case

Johnson Controls grows sales about 6% a year. Profit margin stays near 50%. Earnings per share rise to about $4.85 in fiscal 2026. The company beats earnings estimates consistently and buys back shares.

The bear case

Growth could slow below 6% if demand weakens. Profit margins might compress from 50%. Leadership changes could disrupt execution. Valuation is high compared to peers.

What's priced in

The price is about 22% above our fair value near $116 and 32% below the Street median target. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth, slightly above our 6% target. We see valuation as stretched but justified by steady growth.

What has to stay true

Raise EPS to about $4.85 in fiscal 2026Intact
Cash FlowprimaryEPS = $4.85 · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: EPS falls below $4.85 in FY26
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Maintain operating leverage of ~50% for fiscal 2026Cost
  Johnson Controls aims to maintain an operating leverage of approximately 50% for fiscal year 2026.
  On Track
  CEO/CFO:“The Company's fiscal 2026 full year continuing operations guidance is as follows: Operating leverage of ~50%.”
Maintain stable leadership and strategic decisionsIntact
Management ExecutionsupportingNo major disruptive leadership changes · next 4 quarters (qualitative)
Breaks if: Significant leadership disruption or strategic missteps occur
Maintain operating leverage of ~50% for fiscal 2026Intact
Marginprimary~50% operating leverage · FY26 (qualitative)
Breaks if: operating leverage falls significantly below 50% in FY26
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Maintain operating leverage of ~50% for fiscal 2026Cost
  Johnson Controls aims to maintain an operating leverage of approximately 50% for fiscal year 2026.
  On Track
  CEO/CFO:
Achieve organic sales growth of ~6% for fiscal 2026Intact
Revenue Growthprimary>=6% organic sales growth · FY26 (qualitative)
Breaks if: organic sales growth falls below 6% in FY26
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Achieve organic sales growth of ~6% for fiscal 2026Growth
  Johnson Controls aims to achieve approximately 6% organic sales growth for fiscal year 2026.
  On Track
  Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $5.4B in 2025-Q1 to $6.1B in 2026-Q2, indicating progress towards the 6% organic sales growth target. The trajectory is delivering as planned.

Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.

Read the full Outlook — the long-form 1–3 year hold read

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.