Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$91.01+4.60%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.58 → 4.52 EPS · FY ending Sep 27, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JJSF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $0.40 next quarter | Earnings per share guidance is steady at $0.40 next quarter. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $0.35 next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
JJSF is a steady consumer staples business with a transformation and execution story, rather than a deep-value case. Its long-term thesis is intact, and recent signals have improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though broad sales growth remains uneven.
The valuation is stretched, at a 1.57 premium versus peers, reflecting a durable-business premium. The expectations gap is 0.23, but the evidence does not explain what that figure means in practical terms; the model has medium confidence. Fragility is rated low, so the snapshot does not flag concentrated pricing risk.
Near term, plant savings are running ahead of plan, and management raised its annualized savings goal to at least $20 million by 2026-Q3. However, operating income fell from $60.6 million in 2025-Q3 to $46.3 million in 2026-Q3, partly due to sales headwinds, while recent revenue trends remain mixed. The next guidance update and the weakening jobs trend are key near-term risks; the stated miss risk is low, but the snapshot notes recent misses.
The multi-year view depends on whether Project Apollo savings and product launches can support results while sales trends remain uneven. A guidance cut or further job-market weakening would add pressure, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, JJSF’s thesis rests on management turning cost savings and innovation into steadier fundamentals, with stretched valuation leaving limited room for execution setbacks. The thesis is intact, but the evidence supports a measured view rather than a settled outcome. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross profit rose to $99.3M, showing product innovation works. |
| Intact |
| gross profit falls below $95 million in next 4 quarters |
Gross profit: $151.016M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $99.3 million gross profit. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026151,016,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"The innovative product launches we discussed last quarter are now reaching customers with positive early reception, and our pipeline remains robust.” “Looking ahead, we expect the sales environment to improve in the fourth quarter as our pipeline fills for core products and recent headwinds diminish.” Delivery assessment Nov 3, 2026 |
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 28.7% in Q2 2026 | J&J Snack Foods keeps growing profit margins near 28.7% in Q2 2026. | Broken | adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 26% in next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 0.3% annually | A primary condition in J&J Snack Foods Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | revenue growth falls below -3% YoY next year | Revenue growth: -6.24% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-6.237384 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.58 → $4.52 · observed estimates
$1.57B → $1.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.58 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.52 | $1,569,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.