J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$84.11-2.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JJSF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JJSF — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-06-10
Senior Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary — Michael A. Pollner: Mr. Pollner resigned from his position and the company is searching for a successor.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show ongoing problems in the bakery business and sales.
Worry ifQ2 net sales decline worse than -3.2% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net sales stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Savings from Project Apollo could help the company make more money. This supports future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says Project Apollo will save over $20 million each year.
Worry ifManagement cuts the savings target to less than $20 million.
Why it matters: If consumer staples revenue growth picks up, it could benefit J&J Snack Foods.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the sector exceeds 5% again.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth in the sector remains below 5%.
Why it matters: News on share buybacks can show management's trust in the company's value and finances.
Supportive ifManagement shares news on the new $50 million share buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $282 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,416 loss on $10,000 · 34.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Success in this project is key for making more money and business health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA increases by more than 9.5% in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is less than or equal to 9.5% in Q2.
Why it matters: Sales trends in Q4 will show if the company can recover from recent declines. A return to growth is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ4 net sales growth turns positive year over year, exceeding a 0% change.
Worry ifQ4 net sales decline continues year over year, worse than -6.2%.
Why it matters: A smooth change helps keep the law stable. It also helps management succeed.
Worry ifA new General Counsel is appointed quickly and smoothly.
Less concerning ifThere is a long search or problems in legal operations.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management believes in the company's value. This can help the share price.
Supportive ifManagement announces more share buybacks of at least $20 million.
Worry ifNo new share buyback announcements or cuts to the buyback program.
Why it matters: Sales growth here is important for recovery. This is true after recent drops.
Supportive ifFood Service segment sales grow year over year for two consecutive quarters.
Worry ifFood Service segment sales continue to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good cost management. It helps profits during tough sales times.
Supportive ifManagement says they saved at least $20 million a year by the end of Q4.
Worry ifManagement fails to meet the $20 million target by the end of Q4.
Why it matters: Cost savings from plant changes could help overall profits and aid the transformation.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least $15 million in savings from plant changes.
Worry ifNo news on cost savings or signs of delays in plant changes.
Why it matters: A big rise in operating income would mean cost-saving steps are working. This supports future profits.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q4 increases by at least 10% compared to Q3.
Worry ifOperating income in Q4 declines or grows less than 10% compared to Q3.
Why it matters: Successful product launches can increase sales. They can also help the company stand out in a tough industry.
Watch forNew product launches got a positive response and good sales reported in Q4.
Also watch forNew product launches fail to gain traction or generate significant sales in Q4.
Why it matters: New product launches can increase sales. They can also improve overall performance.
Supportive ifPositive sales growth from new products like Dippin' Dots and pretzel items.
Worry ifNew products fail to gain traction or show declining sales.
Why it matters: This change could impact legal stability and focus during a key change.
Worry ifNo major problems reported after the change.
Less concerning ifThere are reports of problems or legal issues. These are linked to the General Counsel leaving.
Why it matters: A good reception would help with innovation. It could also increase sales in important areas.
Watch forManagement reports strong early sales from new product launches in Q3.
Also watch forNew product launches receive poor market reception or fail to drive sales.
Why it matters: Successful launches can boost sales and show that innovation is working.
Supportive ifManagement shares news of successful new product launches in Q2.
Worry ifNo new product launches or poor reception of new products in Q2.
Why it matters: Successful product launches can increase sales and strengthen market position. This is key in a tough market.
Supportive ifManagement says new products are getting a good early response for the next quarter.
Worry ifNew product launches fail to gain traction or receive negative feedback from customers.
Why it matters: Slower growth may mean Project Apollo is not giving the expected results.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth below 9.5% in Q2.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA growth above 9.5% in Q2.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show good cost management and successful changes.
Supportive ifManagement says operating income is $20 million or more in Q4.
Worry ifOperating income is under $20 million. This shows the changes are not working well.
Why it matters: New product launches can boost sales. This can lead to better financial results.
Supportive ifPositive sales growth reported from new product launches in the next earnings call.
Worry ifNew product launches receive negative feedback or fail to drive sales growth.