JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$358.64-0.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
JPMorgan grows net income from $14.4B to $16.5B in 2026-Q1. Operating income rose from $18.7B to $20.5B in the same period. The bank keeps strong capital with CET1 near 14.3% and high liquidity. It raised dividends and started a $50B share buyback program.
Economic or oil market troubles could hurt JPMorgan's income. Regulatory rules on stablecoins may reduce profits. Currency bet cuts may slow net income growth.
The price is about 9% above our fair value near $309. Analysts expect 7% revenue growth. Our fair value is below the Street median, so weigh the Street range.
Breaks if: Dividend cut or buyback canceled after 2026-Q3
Increase quarterly dividend and implement a new $50 billion common share repurchase program to deploy capital flexibly and enhance shareholder value.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to increasing net income and revenue.
The market seems to reflect a neutral valuation, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a modest expectations gap, indicating that while some growth is anticipated, there is room for surprises in performance.
Management is on track with priorities like increasing net income and maintaining a strong capital position. Recent results show a significant year-over-year rise in net income and revenue, although the earnings quality remains fragile.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers such as Bank of America, HSBC, and Wells Fargo. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rates could impact the overall financial sector's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'moderate' to 'low'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports expectations for revenue growth. However, legal issues could impact reputation and operations.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management announced an intended dividend increase to $1.65 per share and authorized a $50 billion share repurchase program effective July 1, 2026. This is the first quarter this capital allocation priority was explicitly stated in the disclosures, with no prior quarters for comparison. The financials show a stable dividend of $1.50 per share in 2026-Q2, consistent with the announcement timing.
“Board intends to increase quarterly dividend to $1.65 and authorized $50B share repurchase program”
Breaks if: CET1 falls below 14.3% or excess HQLA below $270B in 2026-Q1
Sustain a fortress balance sheet with robust capital ratios, liquidity coverage, and risk-weighted assets management to support business and regulatory requirements.
Stated in 3 of last 4 quarters. CET1 capital increased from $287B in 2025-Q3 to $303B in 2026-Q2, while the Standardized CET1 ratio slightly declined from 14.8% to 14.1%. Liquidity coverage ratio remained robust above 110%. Management's emphasis on maintaining a fortress balance sheet aligns with stable capital and liquidity metrics, indicating delivering on this priority.
“CET1 capital of $303B, Standardized CET1 ratio of 14.1%, Firm LCR 110%”
“CET1 capital of $291B, Standardized CET1 ratio of 14.3%, Firm LCR 112%”
“CET1 capital of $287B, Standardized CET1 ratio of 14.8%, Firm SLR 5.8%”
Breaks if: net income falls below $16.5B in 2026-Q1
Breaks if: operating income falls below $20.5B in 2026-Q1
Over the next 1 to 3 years, JPMorgan Chase appears well-positioned, but its success will depend on broader sector trends and interest rate movements. Not investment advice.