Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$337.34-4.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
25.21 → 25.59 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JPM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend rises to $1.65 and $50B share buyback starts | It raised dividends and started a $50B share buyback program. | Intact | Dividend cut or buyback canceled after 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large financial business with a durable premium to peers, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth case. The long-term thesis is intact, though its recent signal improved only to mildly favorable and risk has moved to moderate.
JPM trades at a durable premium to peers, while the valuation evidence rates that premium as justified. The expectations gap is modest, but the evidence does not detail the exact expectations already reflected in the valuation.
Near-term results have been strong overall: year-over-year revenue and net income increased, and management’s stated priorities on growth, capital, and liquidity are on track. However, the latest reported event was an earnings miss, and the evidence flags fragile earnings quality and a run of consecutive misses across the name and its peers. Capital strength remains a support, while rates and financial-sector results are near-term risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends in part on whether rates stay high, since rate cuts could weigh on the Financials sector. Results from BAC, HSBC, and WFC are useful sector signals: continued earnings strength and higher guidance would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. Over the multi-year view, consistent growth and strong capital and liquidity remain central management priorities.
For the next 1 to 3 years, JPM’s long-term thesis remains intact, with strong recent performance and capital strength offset by fragile earnings quality, an earnings-miss run, and moderate risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The bank keeps strong capital with CET1 near 14.3% and high liquidity. |
| Intact |
| CET1 falls below 14.3% or excess HQLA below $270B in 2026-Q1 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “Maintaining a strong balance sheet to manage through economic volatility is a strategic imperative of the Firm’s Board of Directors, Chief Executive Officer and Operating Committee.” “Maintaining a strong balance sheet to manage through economic volatility is a strategic imperative of the Firm’s Board of Directors, Chief Executive Officer and Operating Committee.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Net income grows to at least $16.5B in 2026-Q1 | JPMorgan grows net income from $14.4B to $16.5B in 2026-Q1. | Intact | net income falls below $16.5B in 2026-Q1 | Net income: $15.305B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=16.5 billion USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202615,305,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income rises to at least $20.5B in 2026-Q1 | Operating income rose from $18.7B to $20.5B in the same period. | Intact | operating income falls below $20.5B in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $20.134B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=20.5 billion USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 13, 202620,134,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$24.66 → $25.59 · observed estimates
$211.36B → $217.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $24.66 | $211,356,840,520 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $24.95 | $211,814,947,880 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $24.95 | $211,814,947,880 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $24.74 | $211,789,899,170 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $24.74 | $211,789,899,170 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $24.80 | $212,453,535,530 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $24.95 | $212,076,487,768 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $24.80 | $212,453,535,530 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $24.80 | $212,453,535,530 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $24.80 | $212,453,535,530 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $25.01 | $213,200,710,620 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $24.99 | $212,431,698,295 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $25.12 | $212,983,678,081 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $25.12 | $212,983,678,081 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $25.12 | $212,983,678,081 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $25.12 | $212,982,322,918 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $25.14 | $213,247,569,938 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $25.16 | $213,153,359,517 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $25.16 | $213,153,359,517 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $25.16 | $213,153,359,517 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $25.16 | $213,153,359,517 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $25.16 | $213,153,359,517 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $25.16 | $213,153,359,517 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $25.16 | $213,153,359,517 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $25.16 | $213,158,060,728 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $25.16 | $213,158,060,728 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $25.16 | $213,158,060,728 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $25.16 | $213,158,060,728 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $25.16 | $213,158,060,728 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $25.16 | $213,158,060,728 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $25.16 | $213,158,060,728 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $25.16 | $213,158,060,728 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $25.15 | $213,158,060,728 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $25.14 | $213,259,392,307 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $25.14 | $213,273,738,195 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $25.14 | $213,273,738,195 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $25.16 | $213,538,899,232 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $25.20 | $213,761,829,275 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $25.20 | $213,759,372,916 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $25.20 | $213,865,710,632 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $25.21 | $213,934,605,369 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $25.21 | $213,934,605,369 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $25.21 | $213,934,605,369 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $25.21 | $214,300,185,334 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $25.22 | $214,300,185,334 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $25.22 | $214,300,185,334 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $25.28 | $214,534,364,281 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $25.28 | $214,534,364,281 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $25.28 | $214,534,364,281 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $25.28 | $214,534,364,281 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $25.28 | $214,534,364,281 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $25.35 | $215,482,813,018 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $25.42 | $215,878,045,783 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $25.58 | $216,405,672,724 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $25.58 | $216,405,672,724 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $25.58 | $216,405,672,724 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $25.58 | $216,405,672,724 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $25.59 | $216,608,894,603 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $25.59 | $216,608,894,603 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $25.59 | $216,608,894,603 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $25.56 | $216,739,631,635 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $25.56 | $216,739,631,635 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $25.56 | $216,739,631,635 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $25.56 | $216,739,631,635 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $25.56 | $216,739,631,635 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $25.56 | $216,739,631,635 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $25.56 | $216,739,631,635 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $25.56 | $216,739,631,635 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $25.57 | $216,887,675,985 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $25.57 | $216,887,675,985 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $25.57 | $216,886,448,595 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $25.59 | $217,086,347,143 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $25.59 | $217,086,347,143 | 14 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
4 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Jan 14, 2027
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.