JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$358.64-0.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JPM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
JPM — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-14
Regulation FD Disclosure On July 14, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPMorganChase” or the “Firm”) held an investor presentation to review 2026 second quarter earnings. Exhibit 99 is a copy of slides furnished for, and posted on the Firm’s website in connection with, the presentation. The slides are being furnished pursuant to Item 7.01, and the information contained therein shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject…
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may show weaker demand. This can affect future earnings.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: The court cases may impact the company's money and public image.
Watch forGood results in court that lower financial liabilities.
Also watch forPoor results can increase financial risks or hurt the company's image.
Why it matters: Progress on the share buyback could signal confidence in future earnings and capital strength.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about the $50 billion share repurchase program. They say it is on track.
Worry ifManagement delays or cancels the share repurchase program. This could be a negative sign.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show rising credit risks. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs reported above $2.5 billion in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain at or below $2.4 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,547 loss on $10,000 · 15.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth could indicate weakening demand and affect revenue growth.
Worry ifAverage loans growth reported below 2% QoQ in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifAverage loans growth remains at or above 2% QoQ.
Why it matters: Changes in credit costs signal the health of JPM's loan portfolio and risk management.
Worry ifCredit costs in Q2 2026 are higher than $2.5 billion, indicating rising risks.
Less concerning ifCredit costs in Q2 2026 are below $2.5 billion. This suggests better credit quality.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is vital for JPMorgan's capital allocation. It affects future investments.
Watch forCash flow remains stable or increases in Q2 compared to Q1.
Also watch forCash flow decreases in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for JPMorgan's growth. It shows how healthy the business is.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by more than 3% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Worry ifOperating income decreases or stays flat in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A drop in the CET1 capital ratio may raise worries about capital strength.
Worry ifCET1 capital ratio falls below 14.0% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCET1 capital ratio is above 14.0%. This shows a strong capital position.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for JPMorgan.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is key for JPMorgan's growth plans and capital allocation.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases by more than 10% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations decreases or stays flat quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Net income above $21 billion shows strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $21 billion.
Worry ifQ3 net income is below $20 billion. This shows possible weakness.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth could indicate weakening demand and impact revenue growth.
Worry ifLoans growth in Consumer & Community Banking is below 2% YoY.
Less concerning ifAverage loans growth stays above 2% YoY, showing continued demand.
Why it matters: The results of lawsuits can affect financial results and stability. Investors will react to any bad news.
Worry ifA settlement or ruling may lead to big fines or changes in operations.
Less concerning ifThe lawsuit ended well. There are no big financial impacts.
Why it matters: Stress test results can change how much investors trust the company. They also affect rules.
Watch forStress test results show a strong capital position with CET1 ratio above 14%.
Also watch forStress test results indicate a CET1 ratio below 12%.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows good capital management. It also shows confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $1.50 per share.
Worry ifNo announcement of a dividend increase or a decrease in the dividend.