JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$352.11+4.18%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JPM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
JPM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-13
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 13, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPMorganChase” or the “Firm”) reported 2026 third quarter net income of $15.3 billion, or $5.57 per share, compared with net income of $14.4 billion, or $5.07 per share, in the third quarter of 2025. A copy of the 2026 third quarter earnings release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and a copy of the earnings release financial supplement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2. Each of the Exhibits provided…
Why it matters: Card balances and sales are growing. A higher loss rate could show that more borrowers are falling behind.
Worry ifIn Q4, the Card Services net charge-off rate rises above 3.34%, the Q2 2026 rate.
Less concerning ifThe rate stays at or below 3.34% in Q4.
Why it matters: Fees rose 14% year over year in Q3, but fell from Q2. A further rise would show that client deal activity remains strong.
Supportive ifQ4 investment banking fees exceed $3.0 billion, the Q3 2026 level.
Worry ifQ4 investment banking fees are $3.0 billion or less.
Why it matters: JPMorgan said it cut buybacks to put more money into its business. Larger repurchases would show that capital use has changed.
Supportive ifThe Q4 report shows more than $664 million in common stock net repurchases.
Worry ifQ4 common stock net repurchases are $664 million or less.
Why it matters: A strong capital level supports the bank through losses and lets it serve clients. A further drop would weaken that buffer.
Worry ifThe Q4 report shows a standardized CET1 ratio below 13.9%.
Less concerning ifThe Q4 report shows a standardized CET1 ratio at or above 13.9%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$71 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $242 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,547 loss on $10,000 · 15.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The Q3 report showed revenue growth, but credit costs included a reserve build. The next report will show whether both trends continue.
Watch forThe January 14 report shows managed revenue over $50.9 billion. Credit costs are under $2.7 billion.
Also watch forThe January 14 report shows managed revenue of $50.9 billion or less. Credit costs are $2.7 billion or more.