Kimberly-Clark (KMB)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$104.96-2.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KMB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers
KMB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the press release of Kimberly-Clark Corporation (the "Corporation"), dated August 4, 2026 reporting the Corporation’s results of operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The information, including exhibits attached hereto, in
Why it matters: Ongoing issues from the China disruption could hurt sales and profits.
Worry ifQ3 sales show a decline due to the China social media disruption.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales recover and show growth despite the China disruption.
Why it matters: Management thinks adjusted EPS will grow by double digits. This would show strong performance.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS from ongoing operations will grow by more than 10% in the next report.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth falls below the double-digit guidance in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: A smooth transition is key for investor trust and financial health.
Worry ifThere are no bad changes to financial guidance after the CFO change.
Less concerning ifChanges to financial guidance show problems after the CFO transition.
Why it matters: The disruption has hurt sales. Monitoring its ongoing effects will clarify its impact on future earnings.
Worry ifSales in China return to pre-disruption levels in two quarters.
Less concerning ifSales in China keep falling or stay flat due to ongoing negative views.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$117 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $249 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,720 loss on $10,000 · 27.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The CFO change may impact financial plans and how the company runs.
Worry ifQ2 results show no harm to financial performance from the CFO change.
Less concerning ifQ2 results show a drop in financial performance due to the CFO change.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this EPS growth would show strong financial health and effective cost management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS growth in Q3 2026 meets or exceeds 10% year-over-year.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth in Q3 falls below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The CFO leaving could change financial strategy and reporting during a key time.
Worry ifFinancial reports after the CFO left show no big changes or errors.
Less concerning ifFinancial reports show problems or errors after the CFO left.
Why it matters: Updates on the Kenvue deal could affect Kimberly-Clark's growth plans and market position.
Watch forGood news on the Kenvue deal shows synergies or growth potential.
Also watch forBad news about the Kenvue deal raises concerns about costs or integration.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted EPS shows good cost management. This helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS exceeds $1.60 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS falls below $1.50 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A steady gross margin shows good cost control during inflation.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 36% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 35% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This shows strong profits and good cost management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS growth reported at a double-digit rate.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth was below 10%.
Why it matters: Closing the Kenvue deal is key for Kimberly-Clark's growth strategy. It will expand their health and wellness portfolio.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by the end of 2026. This is if there are no delays or regulatory issues.
Worry ifThe acquisition may face delays or regulatory issues. This could push the closing date past 2026.
Why it matters: The disruption hurt diaper sales in China. Its ongoing effects will show how Kimberly-Clark manages its brand.
Worry ifSales in China recover and show growth in the diaper segment.
Less concerning ifDiaper sales in China keep falling. This is due to ongoing issues with the brand's reputation.
Why it matters: Keeping organic sales growth is important for Kimberly-Clark's performance. It shows how much people want their products.
Watch forOrganic sales growth in Q3 exceeds 2.5% year over year.
Also watch forOrganic sales growth in Q3 falls below 1.6% year over year.