Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Kinder Morgan (KMI)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.19-4.22%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.54 → 1.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KMI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 billion in 2026, up 2% from 2025 | The company aims for $8.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA, up 2%. | Under Pressure | adjusted EBITDA falls below $8.3 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KMI is an income-focused energy infrastructure business with a multi-year growth angle from expanding natural gas demand. Its thesis is currently intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though cash-flow quality is neutral and overall risk is moderate.
The valuation signal is stretched, even though the comparison driver says KMI is cheap versus peers; the model has medium confidence and indicates a 0.19 expectations gap. Pricing fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent sector conditions being reflected at once.
Near term, two recent earnings beats and a large natural gas project backlog support the current operating picture. Management remains on track with infrastructure expansion and dividend growth, but internal funding progress is mixed, with free cash flow after capital spending and dividends reported at $230 million through the third quarter. A guidance cut remains a meaningful risk, although the stated miss risk is low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on KMI delivering its guidance and converting its natural gas project backlog into operating assets. Sector momentum is another swing factor: continued strong results and guidance from ENB, WMB, and ET would support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the next one to three years, KMI’s thesis rests on natural gas infrastructure growth, steady dividend increases, and disciplined project funding, with moderate risk from execution and sector shifts. Recent results support an intact thesis, but cash generation and future guidance remain key checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Kinder Morgan plans to grow adjusted EPS by 5% in 2026. |
| Intact |
| adjusted EPS falls below $1.27 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow after capital expenditures of $700 million | Free cash flow rose 73% last year to $700 million. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $700 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $545M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $700 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 2026545,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.50 → $1.56 · observed estimates
$18.59B → $18.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.50 | $18,593,560,800 | 15 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.51 | $18,534,846,854 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.51 | $18,614,590,600 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.52 | $18,614,590,600 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.52 | $18,614,590,600 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.53 | $18,659,599,680 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.53 | $18,659,599,680 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.52 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.52 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.54 | $18,659,599,680 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.54 | $18,659,599,680 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.54 | $18,659,599,680 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.54 | $18,662,089,180 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.53 | $18,591,581,557 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.53 | $18,695,814,851 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.53 | $18,697,055,351 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.53 | $18,698,929,805 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.53 | $18,698,929,805 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.53 | $18,698,929,805 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.53 | $18,698,929,805 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.53 | $18,698,929,805 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.53 | $18,698,929,805 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.53 | $18,698,929,805 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.53 | $18,705,475,260 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.53 | $18,705,475,260 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.53 | $18,705,475,260 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.53 | $18,608,122,786 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.54 | $18,662,822,786 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.54 | $18,662,822,786 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.54 | $18,597,185,655 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.54 | $18,562,143,738 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.54 | $18,596,227,071 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.56 | $18,661,888,622 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.55 | $18,661,888,622 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.55 | $18,661,888,622 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.55 | $18,661,888,622 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.55 | $18,661,888,622 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.55 | $18,480,467,955 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.55 | $18,487,987,558 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.55 | $18,470,654,225 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.55 | $18,470,654,225 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.55 | $18,470,654,225 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.55 | $18,470,654,225 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.56 | $18,470,654,225 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.56 | $18,437,464,532 | 13 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 12 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.