Kinder Morgan (KMI)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.40-0.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 billion in 2026, up 2% from 2025: EBITDA margin 43.9% vs target 43.5% (implied).
Kinder Morgan plans to grow adjusted EPS by 5% in 2026. Free cash flow rose 73% last year to $700 million. The company aims for $8.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA, up 2%. These show steady profit and cash growth.
Adjusted EBITDA growth is slow at 2%. The company faces a soft guidance outlook. Pipeline and gas demand could weaken, hurting profits.
The price is about 12% above our fair value near $29. Analysts expect 4% revenue growth, which is modest. We see risks in EBITDA growth and guidance softness.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $8.3 billion in FY26
Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA through strategic projects and operational efficiency.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
KMI represents a stable investment in the energy sector with a focus on natural gas infrastructure. The current thesis state is mixed, reflecting both execution challenges and positive sector dynamics.
The market seems to price KMI as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. However, there is a fragility due to weak execution quality and a turbulent sector environment.
Management is on track with financial performance, showing growth in adjusted earnings and EBITDA. However, execution on infrastructure projects is mixed, and there is a moderate risk of missing guidance.
The thesis hinges on inflation trends and performance of sector peers. Favorable outcomes could arise if inflation reaccelerates or if major competitors continue to exceed earnings expectations.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Kinder Morgan reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $0.37, beating estimates. This indicates better earnings performance than expected. The company improved its net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio to 3.6X. This suggests a stronger balance sheet than previously modeled. Kinder Morgan also confirmed it will proceed with the $5 billion Western Gateway pipeline project. This commitment adds to the growth backlog and supports future profitability.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: adjusted EPS falls below $1.27 in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $700 million in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, KMI's performance will depend on external economic factors and internal execution on projects. Not investment advice.