Kinder Morgan (KMI)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.40-0.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KMI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
KMI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-03
Other Events. On July 28, 2026, Kinder Morgan, Inc. (“KMI”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., CIBC World Markets Corp., PNC Capital Markets LLC, RBC Capital Markets, LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein, pursuant to which KMI agreed to sell (i) $1,150,000,000 aggregate principal amount of KMI’s 5.550% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes”) and (ii) $600,000,000 aggreg…
Why it matters: Higher Free Cash Flow would show KMI's ability to fund growth and pay dividends. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow in Q2 2026 exceeds $0.8 billion.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow in Q2 2026 falls below $0.5 billion.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show weak demand or problems. This would worry investors.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, KMI's net income was below $750 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net income attributable to KMI exceeds $750 million.
Why it matters: This would indicate KMI is struggling to meet its growth targets. Investors may react negatively if growth is weak.
Worry ifQ2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA growth is reported at less than 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Why it matters: If these projects get approved, Kinder Morgan can grow its natural gas capacity. This is important for making more money in the future.
Supportive ifFERC issues certificates for both SSE4 and MSX projects by the end of July 2026.
Worry ifFERC delays or denies approval for SSE4 and MSX projects.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $201 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,035 loss on $10,000 · 10.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows Kinder Morgan's financial strength. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe board announces a dividend increase beyond the 2% growth seen in previous quarters.
Worry ifThe board announces no increase or a decrease in the dividend.
Why it matters: A steady rise in dividends shows KMI values its shareholders. It also shows good financial health.
Supportive ifKMI announces a dividend increase of at least 2% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifKMI announces no increase or a decrease in the dividend for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Backlog changes show how well Kinder Morgan is growing.
Watch forProject backlog increases to over $10 billion by the end of Q3 2026.
Also watch forProject backlog decreases below $9 billion by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A smaller backlog may mean less demand for KMI's infrastructure projects.
Worry ifProject backlog falls below $9 billion by the end of Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifProject backlog remains above $9.6 billion by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong EPS growth would confirm KMI's financial performance and growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EPS growth exceeds 12% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EPS growth is below 5% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Maintaining or raising this guidance signals strong financial health and growth potential.
Supportive ifKMI maintains or raises its Adjusted EPS guidance above $1.36 for 2026.
Worry ifKMI lowers its Adjusted EPS guidance below $1.36 for 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in backlog signals strong demand for Kinder Morgan's services and future revenue growth.
Supportive ifProject backlog exceeds $10 billion as reported in the next earnings call.
Worry ifThe project backlog is down from $9.6 billion reported in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate is critical for maintaining investor confidence. A miss may raise concerns.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth above 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in this ratio will reflect KMI's financial health and ability to fund growth.
Worry ifNet debt-to-EBITDA ratio will improve to below 3.6 times by Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet debt-to-EBITDA ratio will rise above 3.8 times by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Free Cash Flow is vital for funding growth and paying dividends. Positive trends are a good sign.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow was above $600 million. This shows strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow reported below $400 million, suggesting cash flow issues.
Why it matters: The COO transition may affect operations and strategy. It is important to monitor this change.
Watch forKenneth W. Grubb gave positive updates after becoming COO.
Also watch forThere were negative issues after the transition. This shows problems.
Why it matters: An increase in Adjusted EPS means more profit. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS was above $0.25. This shows improved earnings per share.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS was below $0.20. This shows less profit.
Why it matters: Changes could impact borrowing costs and investor perception. Maintaining a strong rating is crucial.
Watch forNo downgrades from Moody's or other agencies.
Also watch forA downgrade in credit ratings from any agency.
Why it matters: If EPS goes above this number, it shows strong financial health. This helps management's goals.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EPS is above $0.34. This shows good operational performance.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EPS is below $0.34. This shows possible problems in financial performance.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition will improve Kinder Morgan's natural gas network. It will also help make more money.
Supportive ifThe Monument Pipeline acquisition will close as planned in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close.