Kroger (KR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$58.59+0.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
KR — President transition
Dated 2026-09-02
Chief Store Operations Officer — Mark Ibbotson: The filing discloses the appointment of an external candidate to a senior executive role (EVP and Chief Store Operations Officer), which is a new hire rather than a departure.
Why it matters: CapEx plans show Kroger wants to grow. Keeping guidance shows they trust future investments.
Supportive ifCapEx guidance for 2026 confirmed at $3.8 billion or higher.
Worry ifCapEx guidance for 2026 is now below $3.8 billion.
Why it matters: Higher spending could indicate aggressive growth plans but may strain cash flow.
Watch forCapital spending was more than $4.0 billion for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending was less than $3.8 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for funding operations and growth. Maintaining guidance indicates strong cash generation.
Supportive ifFree cash flow guidance for 2026 confirmed at $2.7 billion or higher.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance for 2026 lowered below $2.7 billion.
Why it matters: This growth range shows Kroger's ability to maintain sales in a challenging market. It's crucial for long-term stability.
Supportive ifKroger reports the same sales growth, not counting fuel. It is between 1% and 2%.
Worry ifKroger's identical sales growth without fuel falls below 1%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $277 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,655 loss on $10,000 · 26.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If EPS falls below this level, it may show profit problems. This could hurt full-year goals.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 reported below $1.46.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 reported at or above $1.46.
Why it matters: If Kroger integrates well, it could improve its market position and growth.
Supportive ifThe Giant Eagle deal is done, and integration comments are positive.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the acquisition process.
Why it matters: The purchase could increase market share and revenue. It may affect Kroger's growth.
Supportive ifKroger sees better Q3 sales and market share from the Giant Eagle purchase.
Worry ifKroger sees no big change in Q3 sales from the Giant Eagle purchase.
Why it matters: Finishing this buyback could show strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifCompletion of the $2 billion share buyback program was announced.
Worry ifNo announcement of completion by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming the $3.8 to $4.0 billion CapEx guidance shows Kroger's commitment to growth.
Supportive ifManagement will share CapEx plans in the next earnings call or investor event.
Worry ifCapEx plans are cut to below $3.8 billion.
Why it matters: Achieving this EPS target shows Kroger's ability to grow profits. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifKroger reports adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30 for 2026 in its earnings.
Worry ifKroger's adjusted EPS falls below $5.10 for 2026.
Why it matters: A decline might mean higher costs, which could hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 22.7%.
Less concerning ifGross margin reported at or above 22.7%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it suggests a positive shift in the consumer staples sector. This could benefit Kroger.
Supportive ifConsumer staples revenue grew over 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifConsumer staples revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback program may show management's trust in the stock and finances.
Supportive ifThere is news about the $2 billion share buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of Kroger's sales momentum. A drop below 1.0% could signal deeper issues in customer demand.
Worry ifQ2 sales growth is below 1.0%.
Less concerning ifQ2 identical sales growth reported at 1.0% or higher.
Why it matters: Missing this EPS target could show problems with profit and management's goals.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for 2026 reported below $5.10.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS for 2026 reported at $5.10 or higher.
Why it matters: Finishing this program could show strong cash flow. It also shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifKroger completes the $2 billion share repurchase program by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifThe share repurchase program remains incomplete by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition could help Kroger's market position. It may also support future growth.
Supportive ifThe Giant Eagle acquisition is complete.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed or it may be canceled.