Kroger (KR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$68.97+3.23%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
KR — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-05
Other Events. On April 21, 2026, The Kroger Co. (the “Company”) filed Registration Statement No. 333-295223 on Form S-3 with the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to Rule 415 registering an indeterminate amount of securities (the “Registration Statement”). Pursuant to a Prospectus Supplement dated September 28, 2026, the Company is issuing $650,000,000 of debt securities denominated 5.800% Senior Notes due 2032, and $850,000,000 of debt securities denominated 6.200% Senior Notes due…
Why it matters: Kroger cut its 2026 sales range after Q2 sales rose just 0.2%. A stronger Q3 would show sales are gaining pace.
Supportive ifOn December 3, Q3 identical sales without fuel top 0.8% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 identical sales without fuel are 0.2% or lower, or Kroger cuts its 2026 range again.
Why it matters: Q2 had higher shrink and transport costs, while Kroger also spent more to give customers value. These costs squeezed margins.
Supportive ifQ3 FIFO gross margin rate, excluding fuel, rent, and depreciation, rises year over year.
Worry ifQ3 FIFO gross margin rate, on the same basis, falls year over year, with shrink or transport costs still cited as causes.
Why it matters: Kroger set a 7%–11% yearly adjusted EPS growth target for 2027 through 2029. Reported results will test this plan.
Supportive ifKroger reports adjusted net EPS growth of 7% or more per year from FY2027 through FY2029.
Worry ifKroger reports adjusted net EPS growth below 7% per year over FY2027 through FY2029.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $298 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,655 loss on $10,000 · 26.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.