Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Kroger (KR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.43+0.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.51 → 5.48 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures of $3.8 to $4.0 billion for 2026 | Capital spending stays strong at about $4 billion to support stores. | Intact | Capital expenditures fall below $3.8 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $1.144B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.8 USD billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 18, 20261,144,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KR is a mature consumer staples business with a measured earnings-growth thesis, not a high-growth story. The thesis is in a watch state: earnings quality is robust, but recent performance trails its industry group and identical-sales growth is behind management’s original goal.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, even though the model shows KR as cheap versus peers; those signals point to a mixed comparison rather than a clear bargain. The expectations gap is modest, and low fragility means the evidence does not show concentrated expectations risk.
Over the multi-year view, management’s focus on sustainable earnings growth has shown progress: net income and operating profit increased from 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q2. Near term, identical-sales guidance was cut for 2026, and recent results remain below the industry group, though management reaffirmed its broader guidance in June and the latest reported earnings event was positive.
The near-term thesis would weaken if management cuts guidance again or if a weakening jobs trend increases recession concerns for consumer staples. Sector momentum could support the business if peers continue to report strong earnings and raise guidance. The main operating swing factor is whether KR can improve sales growth while continuing to deliver earnings progress.
For the next 1 to 3 years, KR has evidence of earnings progress but a less convincing sales trend, with valuation signals mixed and tagged as stretched. The long-term thesis depends on improved sales execution and steady earnings delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capital Allocation Kroger expects to continue to generate strong free cash flow and remains committed to investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable net earnings growth, as well as maintaining its current investment grade debt rating.” “With more than 400,000 associates across our family of companies, Kroger is committed to providing America with affordable, great-tasting food and creating #ZeroHungerZeroWaste communities.”
Free cash flow of $2.7 to $2.9 billion for 2026 | Profit guidance is steady with adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30 and free cash flow near $2.9 billion. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $2.7 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.7 USD billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 18, 20261,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Kroger reaffirmed its full-year adjusted net earnings per diluted share guidance, lowered its full-year 2026 identical sales without fuel guidance, and shared progress on key priorities.” “With more than 400,000 associates across our family of companies, Kroger is committed to providing America with affordable, great-tasting food and creating #ZeroHungerZeroWaste communities.” Operating income was $1.407 billion in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Successful integration and growth from Giant Eagle acquisition | The $1.65 billion Giant Eagle deal boosts market share and growth potential. | Improving | Acquisition fails to close or significantly dilutes earnings | Qualitative: Acquisition announced 2026-07-01 for $1.65B; no FY26 accretion data yet Kroger announced Giant Eagle acquisition for $1.65B in July 2026. Recent news shows store expansion and investment plans, with no deal failure signals. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage margin pressure despite government pricing challenges | A supporting condition in Kroger's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable profit margins near current levels. | Intact | Profit margins decline significantly due to pricing pressure | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30 for 2026 | Profit guidance is steady with adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30 and free cash flow near $2.9 billion. | Intact | Adjusted EPS falls below $5.10 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Kroger reaffirmed its full-year adjusted net earnings per diluted share guidance, lowered its full-year 2026 identical sales without fuel guidance, and shared progress on key priorities.” “With more than 400,000 associates across our family of companies, Kroger is committed to providing America with affordable, great-tasting food and creating #ZeroHungerZeroWaste communities.” Operating income was $1.407 billion in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.54 → $5.48 · observed estimates
$153.72B → $153.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.54 | $153,717,249,180 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.54 | $153,717,249,180 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.54 | $153,717,249,180 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.54 | $153,717,249,180 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.54 | $153,717,249,180 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.54 | $153,717,249,180 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.53 | $153,695,696,036 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.53 | $153,772,486,642 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.53 | $153,772,486,642 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.53 | $153,772,486,642 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.53 | $153,772,486,642 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.53 | $153,772,486,642 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.53 | $153,772,486,642 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.53 | $153,772,486,642 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.53 | $153,772,486,642 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.53 | $153,772,486,642 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.53 | $153,664,251,348 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.53 | $153,664,251,348 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.53 | $153,664,251,348 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.53 | $153,664,251,348 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.53 | $153,664,251,348 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.52 | $153,793,218,145 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.51 | $153,617,924,028 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.52 | $153,605,524,872 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.52 | $153,605,524,872 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.52 | $153,605,524,872 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.52 | $153,605,524,872 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.52 | $153,605,524,872 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.51 | $153,655,049,257 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.51 | $153,666,857,692 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.50 | $152,991,760,729 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.50 | $152,991,760,729 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.53 | $153,298,943,810 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.53 | $153,298,943,810 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.51 | $152,662,683,304 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.51 | $152,662,683,304 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.51 | $152,662,683,304 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.51 | $152,662,683,304 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.51 | $152,678,949,138 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.51 | $152,678,949,138 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.51 | $152,678,949,138 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.51 | $152,678,949,138 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.51 | $152,678,949,138 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.51 | $152,656,679,138 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.51 | $152,656,679,138 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.51 | $152,656,679,138 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.51 | $152,656,679,138 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.51 | $152,656,679,138 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.51 | $152,656,679,138 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.51 | $152,599,829,138 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.51 | $152,599,829,138 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.51 | $152,599,829,138 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.51 | $152,599,829,138 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.51 | $152,599,829,138 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.51 | $152,415,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.51 | $152,415,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.51 | $152,709,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.51 | $152,709,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.51 | $152,709,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.51 | $152,709,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.51 | $152,709,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.51 | $152,709,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.51 | $152,709,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.51 | $152,709,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.51 | $152,709,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.51 | $152,709,241,198 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.51 | $152,709,399,093 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.51 | $152,709,399,093 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.51 | $153,170,379,138 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.49 | $153,043,528,927 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.48 | $153,211,464,746 | 13 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.