Karman Holdings Inc (KRMN)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.98-1.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Karman Holdings raised 2026 revenue guidance to about $727 million. Revenue grew from $100 million to $151 million in one year. The company expects acquisitions to add value in 2026. Profit growth is supported by higher adjusted EBITDA guidance near $214 million.
The stock is selling off due to cost pressures and weaker guidance. Analysts cut price targets on slower growth expectations. The CEO change and accounting firm switch add uncertainty. Profit margins and cash flow remain fragile amid market headwinds.
The price is about 17% below our fair value near $62. Analysts expect 48% revenue growth, which the market roughly prices in. Our fair value is 38% below the Street median, reflecting caution on risks.
Breaks if: Acquisitions fail to add value or hurt earnings in FY26
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $208 million in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $470 million in FY25 or fails to reach $720 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
KRMN represents a speculative growth investment with a focus on expanding revenue and backlog. The current thesis is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance, but it faces volatility in management and sector headwinds.
The market appears to price in a fragile execution quality, with a premium valuation compared to peers. This suggests that investors are expecting continued strong performance, but there is a risk if execution falters.
Management has shown a commitment to increasing revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, with recent results indicating strong growth. However, there is a medium confidence level due to recent trends of missing earnings expectations.
The future performance of KRMN hinges on the ability to maintain guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. Any reversal in guidance or negative trends from these companies could significantly impact KRMN's credibility and stock performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings beat provided some support for the thesis. However, a sharp drop in the stock price suggests the market may be repricing the thesis. KRMN is down 36% from its recent high around August 31. This significant decline usually indicates a loss of confidence in the company's outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, KRMN's performance will depend on its execution and the broader industrial sector's health. Not investment advice.