Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Karman Holdings Inc (KRMN)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.17-13.52%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.96 → 0.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KRMN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Acquisitions are accretive in 2026 | A supporting condition in Karman Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Accretive acquisitions in FY26. | Intact | Acquisitions fail to add value or hurt earnings in FY26 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and acquisition story, not a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact because recent financial performance is strong, though confidence has eased from high to medium and earnings quality remains fragile.
KRMN is expensive versus peers, with valuation supported partly by expectations for future growth opportunities. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests current expectations may be ahead of what the evidence supports; model confidence is low.
Near term, management’s raised 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, higher quarterly results, and growing backlog point to continued operating momentum. But recent earnings misses, declining earnings-surprise trends, and a sector headwind leave execution uncertain, while a CFO transition and acquisition add change to the picture.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether KRMN can deliver against its raised guidance without a reversal that would hurt management credibility. Multi-year support also depends on turning large bookings and backlog into results, while industrial-sector bellwethers’ results may strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
For the 1-3 year view, the growth and backlog evidence keeps the thesis intact, but expensive valuation, fragile earnings quality, and high risk make delivery central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit growth is supported by higher adjusted EBITDA guidance near $214 million. |
| Intact |
| Adjusted EBITDA falls below $208 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $727 million in 2026 | Karman Holdings raised 2026 revenue guidance to about $727 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $470 million in FY25 or fails to reach $720 million in FY26 | Revenue: $182.063M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$727 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026182,063,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.92 → $0.96 · observed estimates
$0.93B → $0.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.93 | $932,132,960 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.93 | $932,132,960 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.92 | $932,132,960 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.92 | $932,132,960 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.92 | $932,132,960 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.92 | $932,132,960 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.92 | $932,132,960 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.92 | $932,132,960 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.92 | $932,132,960 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.92 | $936,992,960 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.92 | $936,992,960 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.94 | $936,754,220 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.94 | $936,754,220 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.92 | $932,132,958 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.94 | $937,871,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.95 | $942,401,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.95 | $942,401,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.95 | $942,401,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.95 | $942,401,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.95 | $942,401,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.95 | $942,401,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.95 | $942,401,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.95 | $942,401,223 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.95 | $942,446,223 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.95 | $942,446,223 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.95 | $942,446,223 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.95 | $942,446,223 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.96 | $945,505,657 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.96 | $945,509,785 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.96 | $949,855,239 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.96 | $949,855,239 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.96 | $949,855,239 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.96 | $949,855,239 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.96 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.96 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.96 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.96 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.96 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.96 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.96 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.95 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.95 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.95 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.95 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.95 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.95 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.95 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.95 | $949,851,112 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.95 | $952,045,386 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.95 | $952,045,386 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.95 | $952,045,386 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.95 | $952,045,386 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.95 | $952,045,386 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.95 | $951,480,356 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.95 | $951,480,356 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.96 | $953,288,048 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.96 | $953,288,048 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.96 | $953,288,048 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.96 | $953,288,048 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.96 | $953,288,048 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.96 | $953,288,048 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.96 | $953,288,048 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.96 | $953,288,048 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.96 | $953,288,048 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.96 | $953,272,664 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.96 | $953,272,664 | 8 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.