Karman Holdings Inc (KRMN)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.09-6.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KRMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 51.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KRMN — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-27
CFO — Chris Boynton: The filing announces the appointment of an external CFO (Chris Boynton) to replace the current CFO (Mike Willis), representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Karman was negotiating three defense deals worth over $1 billion combined. Signed deals could add to its $1.3 billion backlog.
Supportive ifKarman signs at least one long-term defense deal from the three now under negotiation.
Worry ifKarman reports that all three deals ended talks or adds no firm backlog from them by the next two earnings reports.
Why it matters: Karman said its active pipeline grew threefold in Q2. New bookings would show whether those deals are turning into orders.
Supportive ifQuarterly bookings stay near or above Q2's nearly $500 million, with new firm awards across its markets.
Worry ifQuarterly bookings fall below revenue for two quarters in a row. Book-to-bill falls below 1.0.
Why it matters: Q3 results test whether strong growth can support the $730 million to $745 million 2026 revenue range.
Watch forOn November 5, Q3 results keep 2026 revenue guidance at $730 million to $745 million or raise it.
Also watch forOn November 5, Karman cuts 2026 revenue guidance below $730 million.
Why it matters: Walker expands Karman into European defense. Its results will show whether the deal adds business while keeping margins steady.
Watch forKarman reports Walker sales growth. It keeps its adjusted EBITDA margin at or above the roughly 30% level cited in its investor update.
Also watch forKarman reports Walker-related costs or weak sales. These pull its adjusted EBITDA margin below 30%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$246 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $850 loss on $10,000 · 8.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,386 loss on $10,000 · 73.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.