Karman Holdings Inc (KRMN)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.98-1.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KRMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 40.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KRMN — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-27
CFO — Chris Boynton: The filing announces the appointment of an external CFO (Chris Boynton) to replace the current CFO (Mike Willis), representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows management's confidence in growth. This could lead to positive investor sentiment.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance for 2026. This is higher than what people expected.
Worry ifManagement keeps revenue guidance the same or lowers it for 2026.
Why it matters: A big increase in backlog shows strong future revenue and demand.
Supportive ifBacklog grows to over $1.5 billion by the end of Q3.
Worry ifBacklog remains below $1.3 billion at the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance shows strong confidence in growth. This could boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifThe company raises its revenue guidance for 2026. This is above current estimates.
Worry ifThe company maintains or lowers its revenue guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Good acquisitions can help growth and profits. This matters for Karman's plan.
Supportive ifKarman announces an acquisition that adds at least 15% to revenue.
Worry ifAcquisitions do not help revenue or EBITDA.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$324 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $750 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,532 loss on $10,000 · 65.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This acquisition will help Karman grow in the European defense market and improve its skills.
Supportive ifThe Walker Precision Engineering deal is done.
Worry ifAcquisition is delayed or falls through.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may show weak demand or problems in operations.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 50% year over year would indicate a significant slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains above 50% year over year, showing continued strong demand.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted EBITDA guidance means better profits. This may bring in more investors.
Supportive ifThe company raises its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026. This is in the Q2 report.
Worry ifThe company does not change its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in auditors can change how financial reports look. This may affect investor trust.
Watch forThe new auditor, PwC, gives a good report on Karman's finances.
Also watch forPwC is worried about Karman's money reports and internal controls.