Lilly (Eli) (LLY)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1149.36-0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS rises to about $36.25 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $36.0 vs $36.25 target.
Lilly grows sales about 23% next year to $83.5B. Profit per share rises to about $36.25. New obesity drugs and approvals help growth. Manufacturing and regulatory progress support product supply and launches.
Regulatory and pricing problems could slow new product sales. Growth may fall below 23%. High valuation risks a price drop if growth slows.
The price is about 53% above our fair value near $804. Analysts expect about 23% revenue growth. Our fair value is well below the Street median near $1314.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $23 in FY26
Breaks if: Obesity medicine access growth stalls or declines
Breaks if: Manufacturing capacity growth stalls or declines
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in the obesity medicine segment. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but it faces challenges from execution quality and elevated valuation.
The market currently prices LLY at a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations of continued strong performance. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating more significant growth than what is currently evident.
Management has shown strong recent performance, particularly in expanding access to obesity medicines. However, the earnings surprises are trending down, and while the miss probability is low, there is a history of significant misses that could impact future results.
The thesis hinges on LLY's ability to maintain its momentum in the obesity medicine market and successfully expand manufacturing capacity. Additionally, the performance of sector peers like JNJ, ABBV, and MRK will be crucial in shaping investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Eli Lilly is expanding access to obesity medicines, which boosts revenue expectations. There are no new threats identified that could weaken this view.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Lilly is focused on increasing its manufacturing capacity to meet growing demand.
Breaks if: Regulatory approvals slow or face setbacks
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $63 billion in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LLY's performance will depend on its execution in key growth areas and the broader healthcare sector dynamics. Not investment advice.