Lilly (Eli) (LLY)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1149.36-0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 42.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
LLY — officer change
Dated 2025-11-21
Director — Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Ph.D.: Dr. Bertozzi was elected as a new member of the Board.
Why it matters: Earnings per share shows how profitable a company is and how investors feel.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS prints below $8.50.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 EPS exceeds $8.50.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could make Lilly's pipeline stronger and help long-term growth.
Supportive ifLilly announces new acquisitions. These will increase its treatment options.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Approval would add more diabetes treatments for Lilly and help its market position.
Supportive ifFDA grants approval for orforglipron within the next quarter.
Worry ifThe FDA delays or denies approval for orforglipron.
Why it matters: Strong sales of Foundayo could show that Lilly's plan for obesity treatments works.
Supportive ifFoundayo sales exceed $1 billion in the first six months post-launch.
Worry ifFoundayo sales fall below $500 million in the first six months post-launch.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$137 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $271 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,318 loss on $10,000 · 23.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may mean trouble for new medicines.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported below 50% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth remains above 50% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how much money they make and how products do.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above $20 billion for Q2 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below $18 billion for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Mounjaro sales are growing fast. This shows strong demand and good market reach.
Supportive ifMounjaro revenue growth exceeds 100% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifMounjaro revenue growth falls below 50% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Good results could lead to a big new product launch for obesity treatment.
Supportive ifPositive Phase 3 trial results for retatrutide are shared.
Worry ifPhase 3 trial results for retatrutide are not good or are unclear.
Why it matters: More approvals would improve Lilly's product range and help revenue growth.
Supportive ifFDA or EMA approval for at least two new products in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new product approvals in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Lilly's future relies on growth in obesity drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound. Strong sales help management reach more people.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue from obesity drugs grows by over 80% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue from obesity medicines grows less than 50% year over year.
Why it matters: Progress on Foundayo's approvals will affect its market entry and revenue. It is an important product for obesity treatment.
Supportive ifFoundayo gets regulatory approval in at least two major markets by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThere are delays or rejections for Foundayo in key markets.
Why it matters: Growth in these products is important for keeping revenue strong.
Supportive ifIn Q3, Mounjaro and Zepbound made over $14 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue from Mounjaro and Zepbound combined falls below $12 billion.
Why it matters: Approval would show Lilly's pipeline is strong. It would help future revenue from obesity treatments.
Supportive ifFDA approval of retatrutide for obesity by the end of Q1 2027.
Worry ifFDA delays or rejects the BLA submission for retatrutide.
Why it matters: A change shows that management believes in strong performance.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 EPS guidance to above $9.00.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q3 EPS guidance to below $8.00.