Lilly (Eli) (LLY)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-07-07
$1235.65+2.97%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1235.65. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,236 the market pays 42× p/e — above the 25× p/e peer median but in line with its own 41× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $807 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $1,119–$1,400. Note: our $807 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($1,119–$1,400). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even the durable-growth case — current growth held at sustainable margins — values it at about $981, at or below today's price, so you're paying beyond even the growth case. Not investment advice.
$1119.00 – $1400.00 (median $1313.50) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 1252% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 19.8 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $7.12/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $1313.50 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $456.17 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $429.79 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $151.83 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $912.17 | 25.2 | 36.25 | Mgmt | medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $250.93 | 9.3 | 31.52 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $256.09 | 16.9 | 15.16 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $740.30 | 25.2 | 29.42 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $205.66 | 2.6 | 80.64 | TTM | medium |
| PEG | 12M | $426.22 | 14.5 | 29.42 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $127.51 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $1200.82 | 40.8 | 29.42 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $775.76 | 25.2 | 30.83 | Triangulated | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $2104.66 | 25.2 | 83.64 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $389.48 | 16.9 | 23.05 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1396.09 | 25.2 | 55.48 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $348.75 | 2.6 | 136.75 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $803.77 | 14.5 | 55.48 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $2264.54 | 40.8 | 55.48 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $3674.97 | 25.2 | 146.04 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $515.09 | 16.9 | 30.49 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1846.33 | 25.2 | 73.37 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $461.22 | 2.6 | 180.86 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $1062.99 | 14.5 | 73.37 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $2994.86 | 40.8 | 73.37 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.