Lilly (Eli) (LLY)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1149.36-0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LLY
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,149 LLY trades at 36× p/e — 2.3× the 16× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $806 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $1,119–$1,500. Note: our $806 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($1,119–$1,500). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even the durable-growth case — current growth held at sustainable margins — values it at about $1,093, at or below today's price, so you're paying beyond even the growth case. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $1350.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $1191.65 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $754.13 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $163.89 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$1119.00 – $1500.00 (median $1350.00) · 19 analysts · as of 2026-08-07
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 1021% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 21.3 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $7.87/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $317.08 |
| 14.1 |
| 22.44 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $505.99 | 16.1 | 31.49 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $259.00 | 2.9 | 89.14 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $519.65 | 16.5 | 31.49 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $137.19 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $531.75 | 16.1 | 33.09 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $482.24 | 14.1 | 34.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $813.67 | 16.1 | 50.64 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $359.56 | 2.9 | 123.75 | guidance | low |
| PEG | 3Y | $835.64 | 16.5 | 50.64 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $637.76 | 14.1 | 45.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $893.89 | 16.1 | 55.63 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $395.01 | 2.9 | 135.95 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $918.03 | 16.5 | 55.63 | Analyst | medium |