LyondellBasell (LYB)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.52-1.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth above 7% annually: rev -3.7% vs 7.9%.
LyondellBasell is improving cash flow with a $1.1 billion target in 2026. The company is growing revenue modestly, above $7 billion in Q1 2026. Profit rose to $239 million in Q1, showing better cost control. Their portfolio changes and cost advantages support recovery.
The company is still losing money and cash flow is negative. Revenue growth is slow and profit gains are fragile. Market conditions and costs may hurt recovery efforts.
The price is about 26% below our fair value near $75. Analysts expect about 8% revenue growth, which matches our view.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $600 million in FY25 or below $1.1 billion in FY26
Focus on reducing fixed costs, maintaining capital spending discipline, and optimizing working capital to support cash generation.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on improving cash flow and operational efficiency. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent financial performance that is above average for its industry.
The market appears to be pricing in a justified valuation, reflecting a divergence where LYB is considered cheap compared to its peers. However, there is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential operational improvements.
Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results in the near term. Management's focus on cash improvement and portfolio transformation is on track, but the fragile earnings quality and elevated risks could impact overall performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on their cash improvement plan. Additionally, favorable scenarios such as reaccelerating inflation or positive earnings from sector peers could enhance LYB's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this view. The company also has favorable market conditions. It is targeting a cash improvement plan of $1.3 billion by the end of 2026. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below prior quarter loss of $88 million
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 7% next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, LYB's performance will depend on effective execution of its strategic priorities and external economic factors. Not investment advice.