Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
LyondellBasell (LYB)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$61.63-2.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.12 → 6.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LYB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow of at least $1.1 billion in 2026 | LyondellBasell is improving cash flow with a $1.1 billion target in 2026. | Improving | Free cash flow falls below $600 million in FY25 or below $1.1 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $1.177B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1100 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20261,177,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical materials business with an execution-driven recovery thesis, not a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is marked intact, but recent momentum weakened after the latest earnings miss.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to LYB being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.59 peer premium. The expectations gap is slightly negative at -0.08, and the priced-in assessment says current fragility is justified rather than broadly concentrated.
Near term, earnings quality remains fragile: LYB missed on October 30, and company momentum fell from 28.8 to -4.3. Management has delivered the 2025 cash savings goal and completed the European asset divestiture, but the 2026 cumulative cash target remains in progress; third-quarter revenue and operating income also fell from the prior quarter.
The next guidance update is a key near-term swing factor, since a cut would be a meaningful negative. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on completing the cash plan and sustaining operating execution; sector bellwethers’ earnings and guidance will also signal whether the materials tailwind persists or fades.
The 1-to-3-year view combines meaningful management execution with fragile earnings, elevated risk, and mixed valuation signals. The latest miss has weakened momentum, while delivery on cash targets and the direction of sector conditions remain central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit rose to $239 million in Q1, showing better cost control. |
| Improving |
| Operating income falls below prior quarter loss of $88 million |
Operating income: $1.067B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=239 USD_MILLIONS operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 20261,067,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth above 7% annually | A primary condition in LyondellBasell's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.9% YoY. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.45 → $6.31 · observed estimates
$31.92B → $31.60B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.45 | $31,919,722,230 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.45 | $31,919,722,230 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.45 | $31,919,722,230 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.63 | $31,875,513,751 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.63 | $31,875,513,751 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.45 | $31,919,722,230 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.45 | $31,919,722,230 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.63 | $31,875,513,751 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.63 | $31,875,513,751 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.43 | $31,918,342,230 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.43 | $31,918,342,230 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.43 | $31,918,342,230 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.52 | $32,124,320,914 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.46 | $32,090,753,310 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.52 | $32,124,320,914 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.45 | $32,051,143,180 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.52 | $32,124,320,914 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.52 | $32,124,320,914 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.45 | $32,051,143,180 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.45 | $32,051,143,180 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.52 | $32,124,320,914 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.52 | $32,124,320,914 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.52 | $32,124,320,914 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.52 | $32,124,320,914 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.52 | $32,124,320,914 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.52 | $32,124,320,914 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.58 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.58 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.58 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.58 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.58 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.58 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.58 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.58 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.58 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.58 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.56 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.56 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.56 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.56 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.56 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.56 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.56 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.56 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.56 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.56 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.56 | $31,424,118,464 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.50 | $31,255,985,131 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.50 | $31,255,985,131 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.50 | $31,237,986,060 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.50 | $31,237,986,060 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.50 | $31,237,986,060 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.53 | $31,236,621,598 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.53 | $31,236,621,598 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.53 | $31,236,621,598 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.53 | $31,236,621,598 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.53 | $31,236,621,598 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.53 | $31,236,621,598 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.53 | $31,236,621,598 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.53 | $31,236,621,598 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.45 | $31,314,780,005 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.22 | $31,316,163,837 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.22 | $31,316,163,837 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.16 | $31,391,958,586 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.16 | $31,391,958,586 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.16 | $31,391,958,586 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.16 | $31,391,958,586 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.16 | $31,391,958,586 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.12 | $31,442,440,147 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.12 | $31,442,440,147 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.12 | $31,442,440,147 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.12 | $31,442,440,147 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.12 | $31,442,440,147 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.12 | $31,417,377,647 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.12 | $31,417,377,647 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.12 | $31,417,377,647 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.12 | $31,417,377,647 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.12 | $31,417,377,647 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.12 | $31,417,377,647 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.12 | $31,417,377,647 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.14 | $31,554,835,193 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.11 | $31,554,172,693 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.11 | $31,554,172,693 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.11 | $31,554,172,693 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.11 | $31,554,172,693 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.16 | $31,660,045,995 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.16 | $31,660,045,995 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.19 | $31,735,063,887 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.19 | $31,735,063,887 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.20 | $31,735,063,887 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.20 | $31,735,063,887 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.20 | $31,735,063,887 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.20 | $31,735,063,887 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.20 | $31,735,063,887 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.20 | $31,735,063,887 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.25 | $32,134,868,146 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.25 | $32,134,868,146 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.25 | $32,134,868,146 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.29 | $32,351,408,146 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.29 | $32,351,408,146 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.20 | $32,221,937,790 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.33 | $32,325,987,527 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.31 | $31,603,782,877 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | $6.31 | $31,603,782,877 | 9 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 6 recorded
3 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.