LyondellBasell (LYB)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.52-1.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LYB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LYB — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-29
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 29, 2026, certain subsidiaries of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (the “Company”) entered into an amendment to the Company’s structured accounts receivables facility originated in September 2012 (the “Receivables Facility”) pursuant to an Eighth Amendment to Receivables Purchase Agreement, effective as of June 26, 2026, among Lyondell Chemical Company, as servicer, LYB Receivables LLC, a bankruptcy-remote special purpose entity that is a wholl…
Why it matters: Progress in this plan is crucial for improving cash flow and reducing costs.
Watch forThey announced they reached or exceeded the $1.3 billion cash target.
Also watch forNot meeting the cash improvement target shows ongoing financial strain.
Why it matters: Operating rates affect how much is made and profit margins. A drop shows weak demand or problems.
Worry ifNorth American O&P assets run at less than 85%.
Less concerning ifOperating rates stay at or above 85%.
Why it matters: Changes in polyethylene prices will affect LYB's margins. This will impact overall profits.
Watch forPolyethylene prices rise by more than 10%. This is due to tighter market conditions.
Also watch forPolyethylene prices drop by more than 5%. This shows worsening market conditions.
Why it matters: The divestiture is key for cost structure. Its impact on margins will show strategic effectiveness.
Watch forManagement says margins got better after the sale in Q3.
Also watch forManagement says margins did not improve after the sale.
Why it matters: Pricing trends affect margins. A decline could signal increased competition or demand weakness.
Worry ifEuropean polymer prices fall a lot because of more imports.
Less concerning ifPrices go up or stay steady because of less competition.
Why it matters: Raising the cash target shows that management wants better financial health.
Supportive ifManagement will share a higher cash generation target in the next earnings call.
Worry ifNo mention of a cash generation target increase in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: The plan aims for $1.3 billion in cash improvement. Progress signals financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations improves by over $500 million in 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $250 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows LyondellBasell is improving cash generation. It is key for future growth.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities reaches or exceeds $1.3B in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operating activities falls below $1.3B in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong EBITDA growth means good cost control and better market conditions.
Supportive ifQ2 EBITDA was over $600 million. This shows strong operational performance.
Worry ifQ2 EBITDA was below $500 million. This suggests ongoing market challenges.
Why it matters: Selling European assets is important for costs. Its success will affect future profits.
Supportive ifLYB makes more money after selling the assets.
Worry ifOperating income does not get better or falls after the sale.
Why it matters: Polymer prices affect revenue and profit margins. Big changes can show market shifts.
Watch forPolymer prices increase by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Also watch forPolymer prices decrease by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This sale is important for LYB's portfolio changes and cost-saving plans.
Supportive ifLYB will confirm the end of the European asset sale by Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe divestiture is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lower EBITDA may show ongoing market problems and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 EBITDA, not counting certain items, was below $2 billion.
Less concerning ifEBITDA, not counting certain items, stays at or above $2 billion.
Why it matters: This plan aims for $1.3 billion by end of 2026. Success signals better cash flow and cost management.
Supportive ifLYB reports at least $500 million more cash from the Cash Improvement Plan.
Worry ifCash Improvement Plan falls short of the $500 million target.
Why it matters: The sale is important for changing the portfolio. A successful sale shows strategic progress.
Supportive ifManagement says the sale of the European asset is done.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems with the sale, showing strategic setbacks.
Why it matters: The plan aims to generate $1.3 billion in cash by 2026. Success indicates financial health.
Supportive ifManagement says cash is being generated from operations. This supports the Cash Improvement Plan.
Worry ifCash from operations is below what was expected. This shows problems in execution.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $389 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,617 loss on $10,000 · 36.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.