Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$181.25-1.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.87 → 1.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LYV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex of $1.1 to $1.2 billion for venue expansion | The company plans $1.1 to $1.2 billion in capital spending to expand venues. | Intact | Capex falls below $900 million or exceeds $1.3 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $289.524M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.1B to $1.2B total capex. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 2026289,524,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented live entertainment business with a multi-year thesis tied to expanding attendance and adjusted operating income. The thesis is currently intact, though the company remains loss-making and evidence of execution is mixed rather than conclusive.
LYV is expensive versus peers, and the valuation evidence indicates expectations are somewhat ahead of the fundamentals. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not show a clear mismatch severe enough to undermine the thesis on its own.
Over the multi-year view, management’s repeated goals for double-digit adjusted operating income growth and Venue Nation attendance growth are supported by modest progress so far. Near term, earnings risk is described as low, but recent surprises have been erratic and trending down, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Capital spending guidance remains in line with prior plans, though its status is mixed.
The thesis depends on continued growth in operating income and venue attendance, alongside disciplined execution of the capital plan. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could provide a favorable backdrop.
For the next one to three years, LYV has a credible growth path and an intact thesis, but its expensive valuation leaves limited room for execution to disappoint. The central question is whether attendance and operating-income growth can continue despite near-term earnings uncertainty and a sector headwind. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Live Nation aims for double-digit growth in operating income in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Adjusted operating income growth falls below 5% YoY in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The first-quarter legal accrual will weigh on reported operating income, but we remain on track for double-digit adjusted operating income growth this year, and to compound at that level for years to come."” “The first-quarter legal accrual will weigh on reported operating income, but we remain on track for double-digit adjusted operating income growth this year, and to compound at that level for years to come."” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth around 12% in 2026 | A primary condition in Live Nation Entertainment's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: 9.42% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 20269.422732 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The first-quarter legal accrual will weigh on reported operating income, but we remain on track for double-digit adjusted operating income growth this year, and to compound at that level for years to come."” “The first-quarter legal accrual will weigh on reported operating income, but we remain on track for double-digit adjusted operating income growth this year, and to compound at that level for years to come."” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Double-digit fan growth at owned venues | New deals and partnerships support fan growth at venues. | Intact | Fan growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The first-quarter legal accrual will weigh on reported operating income, but we remain on track for double-digit adjusted operating income growth this year, and to compound at that level for years to come."” “The first-quarter legal accrual will weigh on reported operating income, but we remain on track for double-digit adjusted operating income growth this year, and to compound at that level for years to come."” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.16 → $1.83 · observed estimates
$30.35B → $30.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.16 | $30,354,417,440 | 15 / 24 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.16 | $30,358,722,340 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.16 | $30,358,722,340 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.44 | $30,396,981,263 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.44 | $30,396,981,263 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.15 | $30,358,722,340 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.15 | $30,358,722,340 | 15 / 25 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.27 | $30,473,514,435 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.27 | $30,473,514,435 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.93 | $30,675,504,010 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.93 | $30,675,504,010 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.92 | $30,724,210,829 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.92 | $30,724,210,829 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.93 | $30,675,504,010 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.92 | $30,724,210,829 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.93 | $30,675,504,010 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.93 | $30,675,504,010 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.93 | $30,675,504,010 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.93 | $30,675,504,010 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.93 | $30,675,504,010 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.92 | $30,724,210,829 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.92 | $30,724,210,829 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.92 | $30,724,210,829 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.92 | $30,724,210,829 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.92 | $30,724,210,829 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.92 | $30,724,210,829 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.89 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.87 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.87 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.87 | $30,748,632,747 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.87 | $30,745,520,549 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.87 | $30,745,520,549 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.87 | $30,745,520,549 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.87 | $30,745,520,549 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.87 | $30,745,520,549 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.87 | $30,745,520,549 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.87 | $30,745,520,549 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.87 | $30,745,520,549 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.87 | $30,745,520,549 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.86 | $30,733,930,781 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.86 | $30,733,930,781 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.86 | $30,733,930,781 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.86 | $30,751,093,701 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.86 | $30,751,093,701 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.86 | $30,751,093,701 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.86 | $30,751,093,701 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.86 | $30,751,093,701 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.86 | $30,751,093,701 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.83 | $30,770,756,258 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.83 | $30,770,756,258 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.83 | $30,778,756,258 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.83 | $30,778,756,258 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.83 | $30,778,756,258 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.83 | $30,778,756,258 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.83 | $30,778,756,258 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.83 | $30,778,756,258 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.83 | $30,778,756,258 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.83 | $30,778,756,258 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.83 | $30,778,756,258 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.83 | $30,783,284,232 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.83 | $30,783,284,232 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.83 | $30,783,284,232 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.83 | $30,783,284,232 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.83 | $30,783,284,232 | 13 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.