Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-07-07
$183.84+0.30%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $183.84. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $184 LYV trades at 1.7× p/s, in line with its 1.7× p/s peer median — but our blended $159 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and its earnings are too depressed to value on P/E (we anchor on sales instead). Analysts target $180–$200. Note: our $159 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($180–$200). Not investment advice.
$180.00 – $200.00 (median $197.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 397% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 31.5 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.65/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $81.37 | 11.0 | 7.17 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $126.39 | 23.8 | 5.31 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $21.19 | 78.5 | 0.27 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $183.84 | 1.7 | 110.21 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $159.81 | 591.9 | 0.27 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $22.76 | 78.5 | 0.29 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $112.84 | 23.8 | 4.74 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $260.57 | 1.7 | 156.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $104.62 | 23.8 | 4.39 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $327.16 | 1.7 | 196.13 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.