Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$181.25-1.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LYV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
LYV — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-10-16
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: Venue projects drive growth but need large cash outlays. The Q2 release puts 2026 capital spending at $1.1 billion.
Watch forFull-year 2026 capital spending is at or below $1.1 billion, with venue cash needs reduced by partner and sponsor funds.
Also watch forFull-year capital spending tops $1.2 billion. Or the company reports less funding from partners and sponsors for venue projects.
Why it matters: Management is on track for double-digit adjusted operating income growth in 2026. Q3 results test that goal before Q4.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted operating income growth keeps the company on pace for at least 10% growth for full-year 2026.
Worry ifManagement cuts its full-year adjusted operating income growth goal below 10%. Or Q3 results make that goal unreachable.
Why it matters: More fans at owned venues can add sales from tickets, food, and sponsors. Management is targeting close to 75 million fans in 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 attendance at operated venues grows at least 10% year over year, keeping the 2026 plan near 75 million fans.
Worry ifQ3 attendance at operated venues is flat or down from last year. Or management lowers its goal of nearly 75 million fans.
Why it matters: The new notes carry rates of 7.125% and 6.125%. Their proceeds are set to repay 6.500% notes due in 2027.
Worry ifThe company confirms the new notes closed. It uses the money raised to redeem all outstanding 6.500% notes due 2027.
Less concerning ifThe offering does not close on its stated terms. Or the 2027 notes remain outstanding after the planned redemption.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $265 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,668 loss on $10,000 · 16.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 ticket sales were ahead of last year's pace, and sell-through stayed at or above prior-year levels. A weaker report would challenge that demand signal.
Watch forQ3 ticket sales rise from last year. Sell-through stays at or above last year's level, and cancellations stay near past levels.
Also watch forQ3 ticket sales fall from last year. Or sell-through drops below last year's level as cancellations rise above past levels.