Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$173.50-2.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LYV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LYV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subj…
Why it matters: If ticket sales keep growing, it shows strong demand for live events. This would help revenue grow.
Supportive ifQ2 ticket sales growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 ticket sales growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This shows if Ticketmaster can make money in a tough market.
Worry ifTicketmaster income grew less than 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifTicketmaster income grew 10% or more compared to last year.
Why it matters: Macroeconomic data can change how much consumers spend. This affects ticket sales and revenue.
Watch forGDP growth reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Also watch forGDP growth reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Higher spending could signal aggressive expansion but may strain finances. It’s important to track.
Worry ifSpending was over $1.2 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifSpending was 1.1 billion or less for 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $277 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,784 loss on $10,000 · 27.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong sponsorship growth shows brand demand. It helps increase overall revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 sponsorship revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 sponsorship revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Progress on venue projects can signal future revenue growth and fan engagement.
Watch forManagement confirms that new venues will open on schedule in 2026.
Also watch forDelays in venue openings or cost overruns are reported.
Why it matters: Growth in fan attendance is key to revenue and shows demand for live events.
Supportive ifQ2 fan attendance in third-party arenas grows by more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 fan attendance in third-party arenas grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Operating income growth is key for financial health. If it improves, it may boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifOperating income growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Confirming capex guidance shows commitment to venue expansion and growth.
Watch forManagement confirms capex guidance of $1.1 to $1.2 billion for 2026.
Also watch forManagement cuts capex guidance to less than $1.0 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Ticketmaster GTV growth shows high demand for tickets. This means they have good sales.
Supportive ifTicketmaster GTV grew more than 10% from last year in Q2.
Worry ifTicketmaster GTV growth falls below 5% year-over-year in Q2.
Why it matters: High deferred revenue shows strong future ticket sales. It also means good revenue visibility.
Supportive ifDeferred revenue stays above $6 billion in Q2.
Worry ifDeferred revenue drops below $5.5 billion in Q2.
Why it matters: High deferred revenue indicates strong future ticket sales. This supports ongoing growth in ticketing and concerts.
Supportive ifTicketmaster has more than $6 billion in deferred revenue from concerts.
Worry ifDeferred revenue drops below $6 billion.
Why it matters: High deferred revenue growth indicates strong future cash flow from ticket sales.
Supportive ifQ2 deferred revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 deferred revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: If adjusted operating income growth slows, it will be hard to meet the double-digit goal.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted operating income growth is under 10% from last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted operating income growth meets or exceeds 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Falling attendance growth shows less demand for live events. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifVenue Nation attendance growth below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifVenue Nation attendance growth meets or exceeds 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending may show plans for growth. But it could hurt cash flow.
Watch forCapital spending is over $1.2 billion for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending stays at or below $1.1 billion for 2026.