Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Macy's (M)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.70+7.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.38 → 2.36 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for M yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive cash from operating activities | Cash from operating activities turned positive at $292 million in Q1. | Under Pressure | Cash from operating activities falls below $0 next quarter | Cash from operations: $294M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=292 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 10, 2026294,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
M is a retail recovery and execution story, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry and robust earnings quality. Its multi-year view is intact, supported by progress in store reinvestment and comparable sales, though management is rated neutral and near-term risk is moderate.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and its valuation reading has recently declined. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low signs of fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market may still be cautious about the outlook.
Near term, the recent earnings beats and rising comparable sales provide support, though past earnings have been erratic and include a deep miss. Over the multi-year view, Reimagine 200 stores is on track, while growth across nameplates is progressing but remains an area to watch; share repurchases and dividends are also continuing.
A key downside risk is management reversing its recent guidance increase, which could damage credibility. Sector signals also matter: continued earnings strength and higher guidance from bellwethers could support the consumer discretionary backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
The 1-3 year thesis rests on sustained comparable-sales progress and management maintaining its recent guidance, with valuation currently described as cheap versus peers. The business evidence is constructive, but execution and sector conditions remain important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Comparable sales growth driven by Reimagine 200 stores |
| The Reimagine 200 stores initiative is driving 2.4% comparable sales growth. |
| Under Pressure |
| Comparable sales growth falls below 1.6% YoY next quarter |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Our second-quarter performance builds on the progress our colleagues have consistently delivered through our Bold New Chapter strategy,” said Tony Spring, chairman and chief executive officer of Macy’s, Inc. “The investments we're making are driving results across our portfolio, from the continued outperformance of our Reimagine 200 Macy’s stores, to meaningful double-digit growth at Bloomingdale’s and another solid quarter at Bluemercury.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating income improvement | Operating income rose to $112 million, showing better cost control. | Improving | Operating income falls below $94 million next quarter | Operating income: $244M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=112 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 10, 2026244,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize or improve revenue | A primary condition in Macy's's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline less than 7% YoY. | Under Pressure | Revenue decline exceeds 7% YoY next fiscal year | Revenue: $5.059B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue decline less than 7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 10, 20265,059,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.28 → $2.36 · observed estimates
$21.39B → $21.59B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.28 | $21,388,036,847 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.31 | $21,478,326,678 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.31 | $21,478,326,678 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.31 | $21,478,326,678 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.31 | $21,478,326,678 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.31 | $21,478,326,678 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.31 | $21,478,326,678 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.31 | $21,478,326,678 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.31 | $21,478,326,678 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.33 | $21,480,487,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.33 | $21,480,487,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.33 | $21,480,487,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.33 | $21,480,487,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.33 | $21,480,487,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.33 | $21,480,487,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.33 | $21,480,487,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.33 | $21,480,487,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.33 | $21,480,487,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.33 | $21,480,487,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.33 | $21,480,487,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.33 | $21,491,737,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.33 | $21,491,737,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.33 | $21,491,737,491 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.36 | $21,510,568,054 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.37 | $21,544,318,054 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.37 | $21,544,318,054 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.37 | $21,544,318,054 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.37 | $21,544,318,054 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.38 | $21,552,443,054 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.38 | $21,552,443,054 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.38 | $21,578,662,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.37 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.37 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.37 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.37 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.36 | $21,592,537,455 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 2, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.