Macy's (M)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-11-05
$24.19-5.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · M
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 0 industry peers
M — director transition
Dated 2026-10-23
Director — Paul C. Varga: The resignation of a Lead Independent Director is explicitly described as part of regular governance and succession planning with a named successor, indicating an orderly, non-shock event.
Why it matters: The company raised its profit range, while most tariff refunds are being reinvested. Results will show how sales and costs affect profit.
Supportive ifMacy's reports 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of at least $2.15, within or above its $2.15 to $2.35 range.
Worry ifMacy's cuts its adjusted EPS range below $2.15 or reports full-year adjusted EPS below $2.15.
Why it matters: Macy's raised its 2026 comparable sales range after two strong quarters. Q3 sales will test whether that growth continues.
Supportive ifOn December 2, Q3 comparable sales are positive. The company keeps its 2026 range at 1.0% to 1.5% or raises it.
Worry ifQ3 comparable sales are flat or negative, or the company cuts its 2026 range below 1.0%.
Why it matters: The consumer sector has been shrinking, but recent signs point to a possible change. Holiday retail sales data can test that shift.
Watch forThe November 17 U.S. retail sales report shows year-over-year growth in retail sales.
Also watch forThe November 17 report shows retail sales fell from a year earlier.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $400 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,861 loss on $10,000 · 28.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.