Macy's (M)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.05+2.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · M
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
M — officer change
Dated 2026-03-26
Director — Richard Clark, Douglas W. Sesler, Tracey Zhen: Three directors are not standing for re-election and the Board size is being reduced.
Why it matters: This plan is key for Macy's growth and sales.
Supportive ifManagement says sales from Reimagine 200 stores grew more than 2.4%.
Worry ifSales from Reimagine 200 stores show no growth or decline.
Why it matters: EPS is a key indicator of profitability. A drop below $2.00 could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS was more than $2.00.
Less concerning ifAdjusted diluted EPS was less than $2.00.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Macy's is controlling costs well. This may help investors feel good.
Supportive ifQ1 operating income is over $500M. This shows Macy's is managing costs strongly.
Worry ifQ1 operating income is under $400M. This shows Macy's still faces cost issues.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong earnings and confidence in future performance.
Supportive ifMacy's increases its adjusted EPS guidance to over $2.20.
Worry ifGuidance for adjusted diluted EPS remains at or below $2.00.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $381 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,861 loss on $10,000 · 28.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This shows sales are slowing down. It may hurt investor trust in the growth plan.
Worry ifQ3 comparable sales growth was below 0.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 comparable sales growth was above 1.2%.
Why it matters: A big drop in gross margin may hurt profits and investor feelings.
Worry ifGross margin rate declines more than 30 basis points year over year.
Less concerning ifGross margin rate remains stable or improves.
Why it matters: Cash flow is vital for Macy's operations. A drop indicates potential financial strain.
Worry ifCash from operations was more than $200 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations was less than $200 million.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects Macy's sales. A drop could signal trouble ahead.
Worry ifAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth below 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifRetail sales growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher cash from operations means Macy's is generating more cash. This supports future investments.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases above $1.4B in Q1.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $1.2B in Q1.