Marriott International (MAR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$417.28-1.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MAR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-24
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 23, 2026, Marriott International, Inc. (“Marriott” or the “Company”) entered into the Seventh Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent and certain banks (the “Amended Agreement”). The Amended Agreement amends and restates Marriott’s $4.50 billion multicurrency revolving credit agreement, dated as of December 14, 2022 (filed as Exhibit 10 to the Company’s Form 8-K filed on December 15, 202…
Why it matters: Room growth adds to Marriott's fee base. Management now guides to the low end of its 4.5% to 5% range.
Supportive ifYear-end 2026 net rooms growth is at least 4.5%.
Worry ifYear-end 2026 net rooms growth is below 4.5%.
Why it matters: Q2 growth slowed to 3.4% from 4.2% in Q1. Meeting the Q3 guide would show demand stayed firm.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 global RevPAR growth is 3.5% or higher year over year.
Worry ifQ3 2026 global RevPAR growth is below 3.5% year over year.
Why it matters: The sector read points to shrinking revenue, though recent signals hint at a shift. Marriott's RevPAR reports can show whether demand holds.
Watch forMarriott reports global RevPAR growth of 3.5% or more in Q3 2026.
Also watch forMarriott reports Q3 2026 global RevPAR growth below 3.5%.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 13% year over year. Full-year results will show if that growth holds.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA growth is 8% or higher year over year.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA growth is below 8% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $244 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,832 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.