Marriott International (MAR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$336.51+0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MAR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Financial Results for the Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2025 On February 10, 2026, Marriott International, Inc. ( “ Marriott ” ) is issuing a press release reporting financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of Marriott’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99 and incorporated by reference.
Why it matters: Any changes to RevPAR guidance reflect the strength of travel demand and pricing power.
Watch forManagement raises Q3 RevPAR growth guidance to over 3.5%.
Also watch forManagement lowers Q3 RevPAR growth guidance to under 3.0%.
Why it matters: This growth is key to Marriott's financial health and aligns with management's goals.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth reported at 8% or higher for Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth was below 8% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This return shows Marriott cares about investors. It affects stock performance and investor feelings.
Supportive ifThe company plans to return at least $2 billion to shareholders by Q3 2026.
Worry ifThere are no big announcements or progress toward the $4.3 billion goal by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects hotel occupancy and revenue. This is important for Marriott's growth.
Watch forRetail sales report shows growth above 4% year over year.
Also watch forRetail sales report shows growth below 2% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $255 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,724 loss on $10,000 · 17.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and actions in the future.
Watch forThe new CFO and Chief Development Officer start their jobs without any problems.
Also watch forChanges in leadership can create problems. They may also cause delays in operations.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can signal management's confidence and impact stock value.
Supportive ifA new share buyback program is announced. It will exceed $1 billion.
Worry ifNo new share buyback announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This shows weaker demand. It could affect future earnings.
Worry ifQ3 global RevPAR growth reported below 3.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 global RevPAR growth reported above 3.5%.
Why it matters: Falling short of this target could signal challenges in expansion and market demand.
Worry ifNet rooms grew less than 4.5% from last year.
Less concerning ifNet rooms growth reported at or above 4.5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Lower growth may show operational problems. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth was less than 8% from last year.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA growth was 8% or more from last year.
Why it matters: This shows strong returns and confidence in cash flow. It can boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifThe company bought back more than $4.5 billion in shares.
Worry ifThe company bought back less than $4.5 billion in shares.