Marriott International (MAR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLodgingSnapshot 2026-07-07
$380.75+0.26%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $380.75. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $381 MAR trades at 37× p/e, in line with its 34× p/e peer median — but our blended $311 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $350–$446. Note: our $311 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($350–$446). Not investment advice.
$350.00 – $446.00 (median $385.50) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 88% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 20.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $10.10/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $385.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $216.07 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $181.67 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $394.76 | 34.3 | 11.51 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $216.88 | 20.3 | 10.66 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $357.53 | 34.3 | 10.42 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $215.88 | 2.2 | 99.61 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $226.59 | 21.7 | 10.42 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $372.95 | 35.8 | 10.42 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $350.27 | 34.3 | 10.21 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $625.94 | 34.3 | 18.24 | Mgmt(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $249.32 | 20.3 | 12.25 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $41.93 | 34.3 | 1.22 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $43.74 | 35.8 | 1.22 | Analyst | low |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $851.12 | 34.3 | 24.81 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $273.60 | 20.3 | 13.45 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.