Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Marriott International (MAR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$417.28-1.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.11 → 13.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MAR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $11.51 in 2026 | A primary condition in Marriott International's published investment case. The stated target is ~$11.51 EPS. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $11.38 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $3.04 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$11.51 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20263.04 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a durable, asset-light lodging business with a multi-year thesis that depends on continued room growth and operating execution. The thesis is intact, though evidence on earnings quality and management is neutral and the overall risk level is moderate.
MAR is valued at a 1.58-times premium to peers, with an expectations gap of 0.09. The premium is described as durable and justified, but valuation has risen recently, leaving the shares expensive versus peers.
Near term, results appear steady: second-quarter adjusted EBITDA grew 13% year over year, and full-year guidance calls for 8% to 10% growth. Room growth has stayed around 4.5% year over year, though management’s 2026 target is expected to be met at the low end; the near-term miss risk is described as low.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining room growth and delivering the 2026 EBITDA guidance. A reversal and guidance cut after the recent raise would hurt management credibility, while results and guidance from hotel peers could signal whether the sector backdrop is strengthening or weakening.
The multi-year view remains intact, with operating progress supporting the business case but an expensive valuation leaving limited room for execution to falter. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Marriott International's published investment case. The stated target is 4.5% to 5% net rooms growth. |
| Intact |
| net rooms growth falls below 4.5% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “4 Company Outlook The company's updated outlook generally assumes the continuation of the current macroeconomic environment.” “The outlook includes the expected partial year incremental impact of the new terms of our recently executed agreements with JPMorgan Chase and American Express for our U.S. co-branded credit card program.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue near $5.945 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Marriott International's published investment case. The stated target is ~$5.945 billion revenue. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $5.925 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $7.005B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.945 billion revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20267,005,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “4 Company Outlook The company's updated outlook generally assumes the continuation of the current macroeconomic environment.” “The outlook includes the expected partial year incremental impact of the new terms of our recently executed agreements with JPMorgan Chase and American Express for our U.S. co-branded credit card program.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Return $4.3 billion to shareholders in 2026 | The company returns $4.3 billion to shareholders in dividends and buybacks. | Intact | shareholder returns fall below $3.5 billion in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “4 Company Outlook The company's updated outlook generally assumes the continuation of the current macroeconomic environment.” “The outlook includes the expected partial year incremental impact of the new terms of our recently executed agreements with JPMorgan Chase and American Express for our U.S. co-branded credit card program.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.12 → $13.34 · observed estimates
$29.54B → $29.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.12 | $29,540,040,400 | 24 / 19 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.11 | $29,544,888,380 | 25 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.11 | $29,544,888,380 | 25 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.11 | $29,544,588,380 | 25 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.03 | $29,523,972,617 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.03 | $29,523,972,617 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.11 | $29,544,588,380 | 25 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.03 | $29,523,972,617 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.03 | $29,523,972,617 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.11 | $29,544,588,380 | 25 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.04 | $29,533,259,428 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.11 | $29,544,588,380 | 25 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.12 | $29,523,865,380 | 26 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.12 | $29,523,865,380 | 26 / 20 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.07 | $29,506,537,058 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.14 | $29,498,915,590 | 26 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.14 | $29,498,915,590 | 26 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.07 | $29,506,537,058 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.14 | $29,495,415,590 | 26 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.07 | $29,506,537,058 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.07 | $29,506,537,058 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.07 | $29,506,537,058 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.07 | $29,506,537,058 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.07 | $29,506,537,058 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.07 | $29,506,537,058 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.07 | $29,506,537,058 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.10 | $29,466,861,088 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.11 | $29,466,861,088 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.11 | $29,466,861,088 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.11 | $29,466,861,088 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.11 | $29,466,861,088 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.11 | $29,466,861,088 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.11 | $29,466,861,088 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.11 | $29,466,861,088 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.11 | $29,466,861,088 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.11 | $29,466,861,088 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.12 | $29,522,959,040 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.12 | $29,522,959,040 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.12 | $29,522,959,040 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.12 | $29,522,959,040 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.10 | $29,522,611,088 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.10 | $29,522,611,088 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.10 | $29,522,611,088 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.10 | $29,522,611,088 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.10 | $29,522,611,088 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.10 | $29,522,611,088 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.10 | $29,522,611,088 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.10 | $29,522,611,088 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.10 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.10 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.10 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.10 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.10 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.10 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.10 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.10 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.10 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.11 | $29,484,724,846 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.11 | $29,486,506,193 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.10 | $29,468,165,002 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.09 | $29,468,786,729 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.09 | $29,468,786,729 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.10 | $29,468,786,729 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.10 | $29,468,786,729 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.09 | $29,395,786,729 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.10 | $29,402,195,820 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.10 | $29,410,129,014 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.10 | $29,414,559,092 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.10 | $29,414,559,092 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.10 | $29,414,559,092 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.10 | $29,414,559,092 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.10 | $29,414,559,092 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.10 | $29,431,014,287 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.10 | $29,431,014,287 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.10 | $29,431,014,287 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.10 | $29,431,014,287 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.10 | $29,431,014,287 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.10 | $29,431,014,287 | 20 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.29 | $29,559,165,979 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.34 | $29,556,118,360 | 18 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 12 recorded
5 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.