Marriott International (MAR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$336.51+0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS near $11.51 in 2026: EPS guidance mid $11.73 vs target $11.51.
Marriott grows rooms by about 5% in 2026. Revenue reaches nearly $6 billion next year. Profit per share rises to about $11.5. The company returns $4.3 billion to shareholders in dividends and buybacks.
Revenue growth is slow and profit margins may shrink. Share buybacks could slow if cash flow weakens. Competition and economic headwinds may pressure room growth.
The price is about 23% above our fair value near $312. Analysts expect 7% revenue growth, close to management's 4.5%-5% rooms growth target. Our fair value is below the Street median, reflecting caution on margin and growth sustainability.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $11.38 in FY26
Breaks if: net rooms growth falls below 4.5% in FY26
Breaks if: revenue falls below $5.925 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment thesis is centered on a durable compounder with a focus on consistent growth and shareholder returns. The current state reflects strong recent financial performance, but the sector backdrop presents challenges.
The market appears to be pricing in a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations of stable growth and shareholder returns. However, there is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential risks.
Marriott's fundamentals are likely to continue showing strong adjusted EBITDA growth, supported by management's commitment to achieving their targets. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for economic headwinds affecting the Consumer Discretionary sector.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth in net rooms and adjusted EBITDA, as well as external factors like inflation and sector performance. Key indicators will be the performance of sector bellwethers and any changes in guidance from Marriott.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company beat earnings expectations recently. This supports the view of strong financial performance. However, there are concerns about maintaining adjusted EBITDA growth. Increased competition in the branded homes segment may also pose challenges.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Marriott aims to sustain adjusted EBITDA growth between 8% and 10% for 2026.
Breaks if: shareholder returns fall below $3.5 billion in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, Marriott's operational strength and shareholder return strategy will be crucial, but external economic factors could pose risks. Not investment advice.