Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Mattel (MAT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$14.97-3.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.58 → 1.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MAT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS reaches at least $1.27 in FY26 | A primary condition in Mattel's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.27 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.10 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-0.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.27 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-0.06 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MAT is a consumer business with a multi-year thesis centered on IP-driven play, family entertainment, and cost savings. That thesis is in a watch state: earnings quality is robust, but recent financial performance is weak, management is volatile, and risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence says MAT is cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is slightly negative, meaning market expectations are not clearly undemanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; valuation has also fallen notably in the recent period.
Near term, results remain uneven: 2025 full-year sales declined, 2026 guidance calls for growth, and the latest reported quarter had an adjusted operating loss despite cost savings partly offsetting tariff costs. Management reaffirmed guidance as of August 4, but recent misses, a CEO transition, and weak performance versus industry peers leave execution as a key concern.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on delivering the guided growth and improving profitability through cost savings and efficiency work. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the business backdrop; weakness at those companies could remove that support.
The 1-to-3-year view remains watchful: MAT has a recurring strategic focus and concrete repurchase activity, but sustained operating improvement is not yet established. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets over $5.3B revenue and aims to improve profit margins with a gross margin above 50%. |
| Improving |
| Gross margin falls below 48% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 48.17% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 50%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202648.174573 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves toward positive territory | A primary condition in Mattel's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income improves by at least 20% YoY in FY26. | Improving | Operating income declines further or remains below -$80M in FY26 | Operating income: $10.873M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves by at least 20% YoY in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202610,873,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $5.348B in FY26 | A primary condition in Mattel's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.348 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $5.0 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.125B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.348 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261,125,326,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.61 → $1.57 · observed estimates
$5.96B → $6.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.61 | $5,958,589,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.61 | $5,958,589,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.61 | $5,958,589,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.59 | $5,987,605,201 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.61 | $5,958,589,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.59 | $5,987,605,201 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.61 | $5,958,589,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.61 | $5,958,589,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.59 | $5,987,605,201 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.61 | $5,958,589,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.61 | $5,958,589,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.61 | $5,958,589,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.61 | $5,958,589,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.61 | $5,958,589,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.59 | $6,007,838,072 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.60 | $5,977,647,810 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.60 | $5,977,647,810 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.60 | $5,977,647,810 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.59 | $5,977,647,810 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.59 | $6,007,838,072 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.59 | $6,007,838,072 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.59 | $6,007,838,072 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.59 | $6,007,838,072 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.59 | $6,007,838,072 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.59 | $6,007,838,072 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.59 | $6,007,838,072 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.59 | $6,001,907,499 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.59 | $6,001,907,499 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.59 | $6,001,907,499 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.59 | $6,001,907,499 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.59 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.59 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.59 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.59 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.58 | $6,000,668,254 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.58 | $6,000,114,040 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.58 | $6,000,114,040 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.58 | $6,000,114,040 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.58 | $6,000,085,469 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.58 | $6,000,085,469 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.58 | $6,000,085,469 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.58 | $6,000,085,469 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.58 | $6,000,085,469 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.58 | $6,000,085,469 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.58 | $6,000,021,183 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.58 | $6,000,021,183 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.58 | $5,995,299,736 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.58 | $5,995,299,736 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.58 | $5,995,299,736 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.58 | $5,995,299,736 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.58 | $5,995,299,736 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.58 | $5,995,299,736 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.58 | $5,995,299,736 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.58 | $5,995,299,736 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.58 | $5,995,299,736 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.57 | $5,995,299,736 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.57 | $5,995,299,736 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.57 | $5,995,299,736 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.57 | $5,994,103,361 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.57 | $5,994,103,361 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.57 | $5,994,103,361 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.57 | $5,994,103,361 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.57 | $5,994,103,361 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.57 | $5,994,103,361 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.57 | $5,994,103,361 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.57 | $5,997,445,308 | 7 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.