Mattel (MAT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.53+1.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Mattel is growing revenue steadily, with sales rising from $826.6M to $862.2M in Q1 2026. The company targets over $5.3B revenue and aims to improve profit margins with a gross margin above 50%. New partnerships, like with Netflix, support growth. The stock trades cheap at a PE of 10.6 versus peers at 20.4.
Mattel's operating income is declining, with a loss of $102.7M in Q1 2026 versus a loss of $52.98M last year. Guidance was cut recently, signaling challenges ahead. Revenue growth is modest and profit improvement is uncertain, risking further earnings misses.
The market prices Mattel about 18% below our fair value near $16, reflecting cautious optimism. Analysts expect roughly 7% revenue growth, which aligns with company guidance, but recent margin and profit pressures suggest risks to this view.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.10 in FY26
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 48% in FY26
Breaks if: Operating income declines further or remains below -$80M in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on growth in intellectual property and family entertainment. The current thesis state is cautious, given recent weak financial performance and elevated risks in the consumer discretionary sector.
The market currently prices MAT as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully anticipate the challenges ahead, including potential guidance cuts or inflation impacts.
Management is focused on growing the IP-driven business and achieving cost savings, showing some positive momentum in recent quarters. However, recent financial results have been weak, and the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, indicating some near-term risks.
The future performance of MAT will depend on management's ability to execute their strategic priorities and the overall health of the consumer discretionary sector. Key scenarios include the performance of sector bellwethers and potential inflation impacts.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. New products and initiatives support growth in IP-driven play. However, the latest earnings miss and competition from Hasbro pose significant challenges.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $5.0 billion in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MAT's trajectory will be shaped by its management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.