Mattel (MAT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.57+1.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MAT — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-19
CFO — Peter Griffith: The filing announces the appointment of an external candidate as CFO to succeed the outgoing CFO, representing a planned succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Mattel reported 2025 sales down 1%, but set 2026 growth guidance of 3% to 6%. Q3 results test that plan.
Watch forQ3 net sales rise year over year, and Mattel keeps its 2026 constant-currency growth guidance at 3% to 6%.
Also watch forQ3 net sales fall year over year, or Mattel cuts its 2026 constant-currency growth guidance below 3%.
Why it matters: Mattel’s games group helped lift Q1 gross billings 21%. Further growth would support its digital expansion plan.
Supportive ifMattel reports growth from a year ago in games, or in the Action Figures, Building Sets, Games, and Other group.
Worry ifMattel reports that games or the group had lower gross billings year over year.
Why it matters: Mattel said cost savings partly offset tariff costs in Q1. A weaker result could weigh on profit.
Watch forMattel reports lower tariff costs or cost savings that fully offset tariff costs in Q3.
Also watch forMattel reports that tariff costs are rising faster than cost savings. Or, adjusted operating income falls year over year.
Why it matters: Lynch took over as CEO in October. His first results update can show how he plans to build on Mattel’s brand and growth strategy.
Watch forOn November 5, Lynch reaffirms the 2026 sales growth plan and names clear steps to grow Mattel’s brands.
Also watch forOn November 5, Lynch cuts the sales growth plan or says Mattel has delayed key growth work.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $322 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,287 loss on $10,000 · 42.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.