Mattel (MAT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.53+1.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers
MAT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, Mattel, Inc. (“Mattel”) issued a press release regarding its second quarter 2026 financial results, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. This exhibit is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act…
Why it matters: A smaller operating loss shows better cost management. This means more money made.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 operating loss narrows compared to $103 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 operating loss widens compared to $103 million in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: This shows that Mattel's digital plans and mobile games are working.
Supportive ifDigital game revenue was above $50 million for Q3.
Worry ifDigital game revenue was below $30 million for Q3.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income shows better cost management. It also means more profit.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income stayed below $70 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Successful game launches could boost revenue. They may also increase brand engagement.
Supportive ifTwo self-published mobile games launch well and make over $10 million in revenue.
Worry ifGames launch poorly or do not make much revenue.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $311 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,111 loss on $10,000 · 41.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The movie's success could raise brand visibility. It may also increase sales for related products.
Supportive ifBox office revenue exceeds $100 million in the first month.
Worry ifBox office revenue is below $50 million in the first month.
Why it matters: Strong movie sales could prove Mattel's entertainment strategy works.
Watch forSales of Masters of the Universe products rise after the movie release.
Also watch forSales from Masters of the Universe products decline or remain flat after the movie release.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact Mattel's performance. It signals broader challenges.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: A stable gross margin shows that the company is handling costs well.
Supportive ifGross margin for Q2 2026 is reported above 45%.
Worry ifGross margin for Q2 2026 falls below 45%.
Why it matters: Luthra's leadership may change how Mattel sells products and boost results.
Watch forSales growth speeds up under Luthra's leadership after May 1, 2026.
Also watch forSales growth stops or falls under Luthra's leadership after May 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost control. It shows the company is working well.
Supportive ifOperating income is better than the -$103 million from Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income is worse than the -$103 million from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The movie's success can boost brand interest. It may also increase sales of related products.
Supportive ifThe movie receives positive reviews and strong box office numbers.
Worry ifThe movie performs poorly at the box office and receives negative reviews.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better financial health. It also means the company runs well.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows strong demand and good growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth of 6% or more compared to the prior year.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good capital use and management trust in the business.
Supportive ifTotal share buybacks reach $400 million by December 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall short of $300 million by year-end.
Why it matters: Clear revenue details would help the digital strategy. They would show value in mobile gaming.
Watch forManagement will share revenue numbers from Mattel163 in future earnings calls.
Also watch forNo revenue details could mean problems with digital projects.