Mattel (MAT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.57+1.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MAT
How strong the business is — where it ranks within its sector on capital efficiency and cash generation, and how well management has been executing.
How this business ranks within consumer discretionary on a research-validated quality screen. As of 2026-11-04.
The screen ranks MAT against its sector on four durable signals: share dilution, return on capital, free-cash-flow yield, and FCF margin. Historically the highest-quality names tended toward better typical outcomes and fewer bad years over multi-year holds (strongest at three years, modest at one), and that pattern showed up even before the price moved. It characterizes business quality, not price direction.
Each leg is a sector-relative percentile (higher is better); 4 of 4 legs were available for this name. The composite is built from these four; the raw value follows each percentile for context.
A forward quality tilt, not a price prediction, and context for your own research rather than a recommendation. Not investment advice.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=5250).
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Advance Mattel's brand-centric strategy through toy innovation, major IP partnerships, entertainment releases, and expansion of digital games.
Stated in 3 supplied transcript quarters. Net sales were $862 million in 2026-Q1 and $1,766 million in 2025-Q4; 2025 full-year net sales were $5,348 million, down 1% year over year, while 2026 guidance is growth of 3% to 6% in constant currency. The strategic commitment is recurring, but the available results show mixed delivery rather than sustained growth.
“continued to make progress on our strategy to grow our IP driven play and family entertainment business”
“implement our new brand-centric strategy to grow our IP-driven play and family entertainment business”
“advancing our strategy to grow our IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering”
Continue the Optimizing for Profitable Growth program and deliver the stated multi-year savings commitments.
Stated in 2 supplied transcript quarters. Adjusted operating income was $160 million in 2025-Q4, compared with an adjusted operating loss of $70 million in 2026-Q1. Cost savings partly offset tariff-related costs in 2026-Q1, but the reported operating results show limited progress toward improved profitability this quarter.
Continue share repurchases as part of management's capital allocation priorities, including the announced program through 2028.
Stated in 2 supplied transcript quarters. Management reported $600 million of repurchases in 2025 and $200 million in 2026-Q1, and retained a $400 million 2026 repurchase target in the Q1 release. The reported purchases are concrete delivery against the capital-allocation commitment; the supplied Q2 financials do not report repurchases.
Integrate Mattel163 and develop digital games and entertainment offerings as part of the broader brand and IP strategy.
Stated in 2 supplied transcript quarters. 2026-Q1 gross billings for Action Figures, Building Sets, Games, and Other were $233 million, up 21% as reported, with growth attributed in part to Games and Mattel163's partial-quarter contribution. That segment movement and the completed studio acquisition are substantive delivery, while further game launches remain in progress.
Continue strategic investments and share repurchases while maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Over the trailing year it converted 7.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=3629).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity (low R² over the window).
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=6802).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-11-04.
“tracking ahead of our 3-year $200 million savings target”
“continued to execute on our Optimizing for Profitable Growth cost savings program”
“repurchasing $200 million of shares while maintaining a strong balance sheet”
“repurchased $600 million of shares ... just announced a new program to acquire another $1.5 billion shares”
“our digital strategy is progressing, including the integration of Mattel163 mobile games studio and the upcoming launch of two self-published mobile games”
“an expansion of digital games, amplified by the full acquisition of Mattel163 mobile games studio”