Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.37+3.80%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.44 → 1.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MFIN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain prudent capital management including $75M senior notes | The company manages capital prudently, issuing $75 million in senior notes and controlling $73.5 million in SBA debentures. | Intact | Capital structure deteriorates or debt management weakens | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-focused financial company with robust earnings quality, moderate risk, and a cheap-versus-peers valuation. The long-term thesis is on watch: lending activity is expanding, but recent performance has trailed its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to MFIN being cheap versus peers, while the market’s expectations are below the model’s baseline. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, meaning the evidence does not show unusually concentrated expectations or a fragile setup.
Near term, growth in originations and strategic partnerships supports expansion, and the latest earnings event was positive. However, Q3 net income attributable to stockholders fell year over year, partnership lending progress is mixed, and recent financial performance has been below the industry cohort. Guidance cuts and erratic earnings surprises remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether originations and partnerships keep expanding while earnings improve. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts could weigh on the Financials sector; continued strong results from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
The 1-to-3-year view is a relatively cheap lending-growth story with evidence of execution, but weaker recent earnings and medium confidence leave the thesis on watch. Its durability depends on growth translating into stronger earnings without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Medallion Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $79M revenue next 4 quarters. |
| Under Pressure |
| revenue falls below $79M in FY26 |
Revenue: $84.377M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $79M revenue next 4 quarters. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202684,377,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve EPS of at least $1.11 in FY26 | Analysts expect earnings per share to rise to $1.11 in 2026 and $1.45 in 2027. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.11 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.31 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.11 EPS in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20260.31 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.47 → $1.03 · observed estimates
$0.24B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.47 | $244,975,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.47 | $244,975,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.47 | $244,975,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.47 | $244,975,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.47 | $244,975,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.47 | $244,975,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.47 | $248,009,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.47 | $254,175,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.47 | $254,175,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.64 | $259,148,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.64 | $259,148,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.64 | $259,148,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.64 | $259,148,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.41 | $259,013,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.52 | $271,022,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.44 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.38 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.29 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.29 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.29 | $270,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.03 | $267,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.03 | $267,316,500 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.