Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.92-4.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MFIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -15.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MFIN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Medallion Financial Corp. (the “Company”), issued a press release to the news media announcing, among other things, the Company’s results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in the press release is being furnished, not filed, pursuant to
Why it matters: Q3 net income fell to $2.4 million as new loans drove large upfront provisions. The next report will show if loan growth adds earnings.
Watch forQ4 net income for stockholders rises above $2.4 million. The credit loss provision falls below $30.8 million.
Also watch forQ4 net income stays at or below $2.4 million, or the credit loss provision stays at or above $30.8 million.
Why it matters: Recreation loans are 63% of total loans. More late payments could raise losses as this large loan book grows.
Worry ifRecreation loans 90 days or more past due rise above 0.66% of gross recreation loans in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifRecreation loans 90 days or more past due stay at or below 0.66% of gross recreation loans.
Why it matters: Partner originations grew, but fees fell from a year ago. Higher fees would show that added loan volume is bringing in more revenue.
Supportive ifQuarterly fees from strategic partnerships top $1.0 million, the Q3 2025 level.
Worry ifQuarterly strategic partnership fees stay at or below $0.8 million, the Q3 2026 level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $321 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,493 loss on $10,000 · 24.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.