Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.22+1.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MFIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MFIN — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-26
Chief Executive Officer — Donald S. Poulton: Donald S. Poulton is retiring as Chief Executive Officer and transitioning to a director role.
Why it matters: Growth in partnerships can increase revenue and provide more income sources.
Supportive ifPartnership loans rise over $250 million in Q3.
Worry ifPartnership loans fall below $200 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact Medallion's growth outlook.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: More money set aside for credit losses may mean more defaults and lower earnings.
Worry ifCredit loss provision exceeds $25 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCredit loss provision remains at or below $22 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The new CEO might change company strategy. This could affect growth and operations.
Watch forThe new CEO announces a strategic plan that aligns with growth in core business lines.
Also watch forThe new CEO delays or alters strategic plans, causing uncertainty.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $291 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,493 loss on $10,000 · 24.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Loan originations are key to Medallion's growth strategy. A decline could signal issues.
Worry ifLoan originations are over $376.9 million in Q2 2026. This shows strong demand.
Less concerning ifLoan originations fall below $300 million in Q2 2026. This shows weakening demand.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this EPS shows strong earnings growth and supports management's earnings goals.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS is $0.31 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS falls below $0.25.
Why it matters: Good capital use is key for managing debt and helping growth.
Watch forManagement shares a new plan for capital use.
Also watch forNo new updates on capital use plans, which may show stagnation.
Why it matters: Partnership loans are growing and critical for expansion. Lower growth could indicate challenges.
Worry ifLoans from strategic partnerships are less than $247 million.
Less concerning ifStrategic partnership loans are at or above $247 million.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS guidance shows the company is on track with its profit goals. A change could signal problems.
Supportive ifEPS guidance remains at $0.20 per share for the quarter.
Worry ifEPS guidance is lowered below $0.20 per share.
Why it matters: A new CEO can shift company direction. It's important to see how this affects performance.
Watch forNew CEO Andrew Murstein shares a clear growth plan. It connects well with investors.
Also watch forLack of clarity in strategy from the new CEO leads to investor concerns.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows trust in earnings and managing capital.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend remains at $0.14 in Q3.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend is cut below $0.14 in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in credit loss provisions can indicate the health of the loan portfolio.
Watch forCredit loss provision stays at or below $22.5 million in Q2 2026. This shows stability.
Also watch forCredit loss provision goes above $25 million in Q2 2026. This signals potential issues.
Why it matters: This payment shows that the company is careful with its money. It also shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend of $0.14 per share is paid on time.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or reduced.
Why it matters: This will show if Medallion Financial is struggling to grow its core business. A drop below 5% could signal ongoing issues.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported at 5% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: If loan originations slow down, it shows less demand or problems with lending.
Worry ifLoan originations in Q3 are reported to grow less than 50% year over year.
Less concerning ifLoan originations in Q3 grow at or above 50% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net income raises worries about making money and running the business.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 reported below $6 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q3 reported at or above $6 million.
Why it matters: If dividends go up, it shows confidence in making money and cash flow.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.14 per share for Q3.
Worry ifNo increase in dividend from the current $0.14 per share.