Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH)
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.76+4.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.08 → 2.08 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain positive cash from operations | It also announced a $50 million share buyback, showing confidence in cash flow. | Intact | cash from operations remains negative over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $601,000 FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026601,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MH is a growth and margin-expansion business with robust earnings quality and a supportive sector backdrop. The long-term thesis is progressing on revenue and margins, while management execution is volatile and recent performance trails its industry cohort.
Valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says MH is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 32% premium, and model confidence is low. The priced-in tag is justified, with no flagged fragility; the evidence does not clearly establish how much future growth the market assumes.
Near term, management has reaffirmed guidance, and recent results show modest revenue growth alongside stronger gross and adjusted EBITDA margins. AI-enabled tools remain early-stage, while refinancing, debt reduction, and a repurchase plan show progress on capital allocation; the near-term miss risk is described as low, though peers have missed recently and MH has a history of a deep miss.
The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining revenue growth and margin expansion while executing its AI strategy and debt plans. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be negative for cyclical businesses, while continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MH’s thesis has support from margin gains, management’s reaffirmed guidance, and sector momentum, but elevated risk and weaker relative performance leave execution as the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in McGraw Hill, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY revenue growth. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 4% in FY27 |
Revenue: $549.903M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026549,903,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Valuation remains attractive vs peers | A supporting condition in McGraw Hill, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below 10. | Intact | PE rises above 10 without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 4.98x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20264.9844 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.04 → $2.08 · observed estimates
$2.25B → $2.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.04 | $2,251,271,330 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.04 | $2,251,271,330 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.04 | $2,251,271,330 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.04 | $2,251,271,330 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.04 | $2,251,271,330 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.04 | $2,251,271,330 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.04 | $2,251,271,330 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.04 | $2,251,263,190 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.08 | $2,252,201,745 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.