McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH)
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.31+0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MH — litigation filed
Dated 2026-01-06
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise be subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in su…
Why it matters: Stabilizing cash flow is key for financial health. It impacts future investments and growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations is back to positive amounts above $0.
Worry ifCash from operations stays negative or goes down more.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company continues to grow and meet guidance.
Watch forEarnings are better than expected. This shows revenue growth matches their guidance.
Also watch forEarnings do not meet expectations. This suggests possible problems with revenue growth.
Why it matters: Earnings results show revenue growth and profit trends. This helps assess future performance.
Watch forQ1 FY 2027 earnings show revenue growth above 5% year-over-year.
Also watch forQ1 FY 2027 earnings show revenue decline year-over-year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health and efficiency. This helps fund growth plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive and exceeds $308 million in Q1 FY 2027.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative or below $146 million in Q1 FY 2027.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$249 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $508 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,942 loss on $10,000 · 49.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Reaffirming guidance shows confidence in ongoing revenue growth and gaining market share.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue for fiscal year 2027 will be between $2,115 million and $2,175 million.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance for fiscal year 2027 to less than $2,115 million.
Why it matters: K-12 revenue trends will show if the market is stabilizing or still declining.
Watch forK-12 revenue shows growth or stabilization compared to the previous year.
Also watch forK-12 revenue keeps going down each year in early 2027.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps financial health and allows for growth investments.
Supportive ifGross debt reduction reaches $700 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross debt reduction stalls or reverses, with total debt remaining above $645 million.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show management believes in the company's worth. They can help returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifThere is news about share buybacks from the $50 million plan.
Worry ifThere is no news on share buybacks in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If guidance is exceeded, it shows strong growth and confidence in future results.
Supportive ifQ1 2027 revenue guidance is over $2,175 million. This shows strong growth expectations.
Worry ifQ1 2027 revenue guidance falls below $2,115 million, suggesting weaker growth outlook.
Why it matters: More users are engaging with AI tools. This shows McGraw Hill's strategy is working and may help future revenue.
Supportive ifActive users of AI learning tools exceed 7.5 million.
Worry ifActive users of AI learning tools remain below 7.5 million.
Why it matters: Strong early signs can show a chance for growth in the K-12 segment.
Supportive ifEarly capture rates for new K-12 programs exceed management's targets in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEarly capture rates for new K-12 programs are below management's goals.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals that McGraw Hill is gaining market share and executing well. This would support management's goal of accelerating growth in FY 2027.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 2.6% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 2.6% year-over-year.