McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH)
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.23-11.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MH — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-09
Other Events On September 30, 2026, the Company prepaid $50 million of principal under its then-outstanding term loan facility. On October 9, 2026, the Issuer redeemed in full the 2022 Senior Secured Notes.
Why it matters: McGraw Hill paid down $50 million of debt and extended debt maturities. Reported net leverage will show progress against management's stated target.
Supportive ifA later company report shows net debt to adjusted EBITDA at or below 2.5x. It also shows less net debt than the prior report.
Worry ifA later company report shows net debt to adjusted EBITDA above 2.5x, or more net debt than the prior report.
Why it matters: The August report kept FY2027 guidance at $2.115 billion to $2.175 billion in revenue and $750 million to $790 million in adjusted EBITDA. Results test whether the strong start carries through.
Watch forAt the November 5 earnings report, revenue is at or above the midpoint of its FY2027 range: $2.145 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is also at or above its midpoint: $770 million.
Also watch forAt the November 5 earnings report, revenue or adjusted EBITDA is below its FY2027 guidance range. Or management cuts that range.
Why it matters: Management links AI to revenue and margin momentum, but has not shown a separate financial measure. More active users would show wider use of its tools.
Supportive ifA later company report shows more than 7.5 million active users across McGraw Hill's live AI learning tools.
Worry ifA later company report shows 7.5 million or fewer active users, or says planned AI tool launches did not take place.
Why it matters: Management said new K-12 ELA win rates were above target. Results can test whether early adoption gains support growth.
Supportive ifThe next report says K-12 ELA win rates remain above target and reports K-12 revenue growth above 1.3% year over year.
Worry ifThe next report says K-12 ELA win rates fell below target, or K-12 revenue growth turns negative year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$182 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $508 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,942 loss on $10,000 · 49.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: California reviewers recommended McGraw Hill's ELA programs. The state's final vendor list, due later in 2026, will show if they win approval.
Watch forMcGraw Hill's ELA programs are on California's 2026 list of approved vendors.
Also watch forMcGraw Hill's ELA programs are not on California's 2026 list of approved vendors.