Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$556.56+2.35%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
21.55 → 20.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MLM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA near $2.43 billion | Profit (Adjusted EBITDA) is expected near $2.43 billion. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.3 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MLM is a portfolio-shaping industrial materials business with a multi-year thesis tied to acquisitions, operating delivery, and demand across the sector. The thesis is intact, though the signal has turned mixed and overall confidence is low.
The evidence rates MLM as cheap, while also showing a durable premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, meaning current expectations appear somewhat ahead of the model’s view; the available evidence labels this pricing as justified rather than showing concentrated fragility.
Near term, management’s record of reaffirming or raising guidance supports a stable outlook, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. However, earnings quality is fragile, management is rated volatile, and the company has missed in recent quarters; the stated near-term miss probability is low, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether MLM continues to deliver its guidance while integrating acquisitions and reshaping its portfolio. Sector support also depends on bellwethers such as CRH, VMC, and CX continuing to report strong results and guidance; weakness there could remove an important tailwind.
For the 1 to 3 year view, the thesis remains intact but confidence is low: guidance execution and sector strength support it, while fragile earnings quality and acquisition execution remain key uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Martin Marietta Materials's published investment case. The stated target is $550M to $600M. |
| Intact |
| Capital spending exceeds $600 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $128M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $550M to $600M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 2026128,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow by acquiring aggregates businesses and divesting non-core assets | A supporting condition in Martin Marietta Materials's published investment case. The stated target is Complete acquisitions adding 8+ million tons aggregates annually. | Intact | No significant acquisitions or divestitures completed in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $7.16 billion | Revenue should reach about $7.16 billion in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $6.6 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $2.369B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$7.16 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20262,369,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$22.79 → $20.85 · observed estimates
$7.63B → $9.59B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $22.79 | $7,627,836,864 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $22.79 | $7,627,836,864 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $22.99 | $7,632,693,000 | 23 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $22.79 | $7,627,837,192 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $22.73 | $7,627,837,192 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $22.96 | $7,633,326,340 | 23 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $22.96 | $7,633,326,340 | 23 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $22.37 | $7,656,004,041 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $22.37 | $7,656,004,041 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $22.98 | $7,622,327,650 | 22 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $22.46 | $7,821,839,420 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $22.46 | $7,821,839,420 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $22.05 | $7,713,250,431 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $22.09 | $7,753,530,420 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-08-07 | $22.05 | $7,713,250,431 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $21.49 | $7,814,881,970 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $21.49 | $7,814,881,970 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $22.05 | $7,713,250,431 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $22.05 | $7,713,250,431 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $22.05 | $7,713,250,431 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $22.05 | $7,713,250,431 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $22.05 | $7,713,250,431 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $22.05 | $7,713,250,431 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $22.05 | $7,713,250,431 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $22.05 | $7,713,250,431 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $22.05 | $7,713,250,431 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $21.66 | $7,750,530,936 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $21.66 | $7,750,530,936 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $21.66 | $7,750,530,936 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $21.66 | $7,750,530,936 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $21.66 | $7,750,530,936 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $21.63 | $7,758,139,834 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $21.63 | $7,758,139,834 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $21.63 | $7,758,139,834 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $21.63 | $7,758,139,834 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $21.63 | $7,758,139,834 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $21.65 | $7,758,139,834 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $21.65 | $7,758,139,834 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $21.65 | $7,758,139,834 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $21.65 | $7,758,139,834 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $21.65 | $7,758,123,296 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $21.65 | $7,758,123,296 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $21.65 | $7,758,123,296 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $21.65 | $7,758,123,296 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $21.65 | $7,758,123,296 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $21.68 | $7,758,123,296 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $21.78 | $7,735,519,034 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $21.61 | $7,744,078,977 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $21.61 | $7,744,078,977 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $21.61 | $7,744,078,978 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $21.61 | $7,744,078,978 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $21.61 | $7,744,078,978 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $21.61 | $7,744,078,978 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $21.61 | $7,744,078,978 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $21.34 | $7,744,078,978 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $21.34 | $7,744,078,978 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $21.34 | $7,744,078,978 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $21.34 | $7,744,078,978 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $21.40 | $7,744,078,978 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $21.40 | $7,744,078,978 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $21.37 | $7,723,990,095 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $21.37 | $7,723,990,095 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $21.35 | $7,740,053,231 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $21.35 | $7,740,053,231 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $21.35 | $7,740,053,231 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $21.35 | $7,740,053,231 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $21.60 | $7,740,053,231 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $21.60 | $7,740,053,231 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $21.60 | $7,740,053,231 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $21.59 | $7,862,499,050 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $21.55 | $7,729,357,541 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $21.55 | $7,729,357,541 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $21.55 | $7,729,357,541 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $21.54 | $7,736,154,275 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $21.52 | $7,736,154,275 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $21.52 | $7,736,154,275 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $21.42 | $7,735,756,685 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $21.42 | $7,735,756,685 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $21.34 | $7,728,644,742 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $21.34 | $7,728,644,742 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $21.34 | $7,728,644,742 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $21.27 | $7,727,589,193 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $21.10 | $7,692,864,574 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $21.10 | $7,692,864,574 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $21.10 | $7,692,864,574 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $21.06 | $9,633,777,202 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $21.06 | $9,633,777,202 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $21.06 | $9,633,777,202 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $21.06 | $9,633,777,202 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $21.03 | $9,622,470,768 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $20.92 | $9,608,588,402 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $20.92 | $9,608,588,402 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $20.92 | $9,608,588,402 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $20.92 | $9,608,588,402 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $20.92 | $9,608,588,402 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $20.92 | $9,592,753,516 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $20.92 | $9,592,753,516 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $20.92 | $9,592,753,516 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $20.92 | $9,592,753,516 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $20.92 | $9,592,753,516 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $20.92 | $9,592,753,516 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $20.85 | $9,592,753,516 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $20.85 | $9,592,753,516 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.