Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$514.77+1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MLM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MLM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-18
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On August 18, 2026, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (the “Corporation”) entered into a Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (“JPMCB”), as administrative agent, and the lenders and issuing lenders party thereto (the “Credit Agreement”), which provides for a $1,500,000,000 five-year senior unsecured revolving facility (the “Revolving Facility”). Borrowings under the Revolving Facility bear interest, at the Corporation’s option, at rates base…
Why it matters: This will show if the company meets its $2.43 billion guidance. A strong result would confirm management's confidence.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations will be $2.43 billion or more.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA is less than $2.4 billion.
Why it matters: How the company spends money can affect growth and profits. This matters to investors.
Watch forManagement says capital spending is down but growth targets stay the same.
Also watch forManagement says capital spending is up without clear plans for growth.
Why it matters: Strong shipment growth shows high demand and good efficiency in the aggregates segment.
Supportive ifQ3 aggregates shipments increase year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ3 aggregates shipments grow less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows trust in sales growth. This can help stock feelings.
Supportive ifManagement states that 2026 revenue guidance is still valid in the next earnings update.
Worry ifManagement lowers the 2026 revenue guidance. This means they expect weaker sales.
Why it matters: The debt issuance will show cash flow effects and financial flexibility.
Watch forCash flow improves after the debt issuance, showing good capital use.
Also watch forCash flow worsens or remains stagnant after the debt issuance.
Why it matters: Changes in spending plans may show shifts in management's growth plans. More spending may show confidence.
Watch forManagement plans to spend over $600 million on capital in 2026.
Also watch forManagement plans to spend under $550 million on capital in 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal would help Martin Marietta grow. Delays may show problems in operations.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of New Frontier Materials closes as planned in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifThe deal may face delays or rules that push the closing past 2026.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good capital management. It shows the company can control costs.
Watch forCapital spending is reported at $575 million or less.
Also watch forCapital spending goes over $600 million.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance shows strong demand and good performance.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 revenue guidance to more than $7.4 billion.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers revenue guidance to less than $7.2 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $311 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,861 loss on $10,000 · 28.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.