Altria (MO)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-07-07
$72.95+1.49%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track MO free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Altria grows earnings by about 5.6 dollars per share in 2026. It buys back shares, returning cash to owners. The company shifts to smoke-free products to keep sales steady. Profit growth and buybacks support the stock price.
Cigarette sales keep falling and hurt revenue. Market share losses may lower earnings. Investment in new products may not grow fast enough.
The price is about 11% below our fair value near 81 dollars. Analysts expect revenue to fall about 8% next year. Our view is slightly more optimistic on earnings and value.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $5.4 in FY26
Focus on delivering EPS growth through strategic initiatives and operational efficiency.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS increased 7.3% to $1.32 in 2026-Q1 from $1.23 in 2025-Q1, indicating progress towards the EPS growth target. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated priority.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“CEO: 'We delivered a strong start to the year, growing adjusted diluted EPS by 7.3%.'”
“We expect to deliver 2026 full-year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $5.56 to $5.72.”
“We are raising the lower-end of our 2025 full-year guidance.”
“We are raising the lower-end of our 2025 full-year guidance.”
Breaks if: Buybacks drop below $500 million in FY26
Continue the share repurchase program to return value to shareholders.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. In 2026-Q1, Altria repurchased 4.5 million shares at an average price of $62.33 per share, totaling $280 million. The program continues with $720 million remaining under the $2 billion authorization, showing ongoing commitment to capital return.
“We repurchased 4.5 million shares at an average price of $62.33 per share.”
“We had $720 million remaining under our $2 billion share repurchase program.”
Breaks if: Smoke-free sales fail to grow or EPS growth stalls
Invest in contract manufacturing capabilities to support strategic growth initiatives.