Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1223.86+0.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Monolithic Power Systems grows revenue about 26% yearly. Profit margins stay near 55%. Operating costs are controlled around $170 million. The company pays a steady dividend of $2.00 per share.
The recent 5.4% one-day drop shows risk. Rising costs or weaker sales could hurt profits. A legal issue in February raises concerns about management.
The price is about 24% above our fair value near $1033. Analysts expect 33% revenue growth. Our fair value is 41% below the Street median, so the market is pricing strong growth but risks remain.
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 55.1% in Q2 2026
Breaks if: Operating expenses rise above $171 million in Q2 2026
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $890 million in Q2 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder, as MPWR has shown strong recent financial performance and consistent management priorities. The current thesis state indicates that while the company is performing well, it faces some near-term risks.
The market currently prices MPWR at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that the market anticipates steady performance but is cautious about potential downward revisions.
Management is focused on increasing revenue and maintaining gross margins, which have been stable. Recent results show strong growth, but there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although past performance indicates some risk.
The thesis hinges on key factors such as the company's guidance in the next earnings call, potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, and the performance of major tech peers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO. Any negative guidance could significantly impact sentiment.
Overall, MPWR's fundamentals are strong, but the elevated valuation and near-term risks warrant careful observation. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a revenue increase to $1.14-$1.16 billion in Q3 2026. Strong revenue growth from data centers and automotive also reinforces this outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.