Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1131.43-10.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPWR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 52.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 62.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 49 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MPWR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “1934 Act”), nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the 1934 Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: MPS reported its first orders for 48V power products. Sales from these products would show progress in a new car market.
Supportive ifMPS reports revenue from 48V automotive products in 2027.
Worry ifMPS reports no 48V automotive revenue in 2027 or delays the sales ramp.
Why it matters: MPS has kept gross margin near 55%. A result below its Q4 forecast range would break that recent pattern.
Worry ifQ4 GAAP gross margin is below 55.2%, the low end of the forecast.
Less concerning ifQ4 GAAP gross margin is 55.2% or higher.
Why it matters: MPS said its capacity can support over $6 billion in yearly revenue now. The $8 billion goal would mark further growth.
Supportive ifMPS reports capacity of at least $8 billion in yearly revenue support by the second half of 2027.
Worry ifMPS reports capacity below $8 billion in the second half of 2027 or delays that goal.
Why it matters: MPS forecast Q4 revenue of $1.315 billion to $1.385 billion. Results above the low end would meet its forecast.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue is at least $1.315 billion, the low end of the forecast.
Worry ifQ4 revenue is below $1.315 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$236 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $551 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,305 loss on $10,000 · 33.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Enterprise Data made up 42.1% of Q3 revenue. Management said strong demand from current customers may continue into 2027.
Supportive ifEnterprise Data revenue grows year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifEnterprise Data revenue falls year over year in the next reported quarter.