Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1223.86+0.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPWR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 36.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 44.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
MPWR — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-12
Other Events. On June 12, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the second quarter cash dividend of $2.00 per share to all stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 30, 2026. The dividend will be paid to stockholders on July 15, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Higher expenses may show problems and hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating costs are under $219.1 million.
Less concerning ifOperating costs are above $225.1 million.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this segment shows MPS's competitive edge in power solutions. It supports overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifCommunications revenue was up more than 30% from last year.
Worry ifCommunications revenue was flat or down from last year.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance shows strong demand and supports growth plans. It confirms management's ability to execute on their strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported within the range of $1.14 billion to $1.16 billion.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue falls below $1.14 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin range shows good cost control. It shows the company's strength.
Supportive ifGAAP gross margin reported within the range of 55.2% to 55.8%.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin falls below 55.2%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$286 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $533 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,818 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This will provide insights into MPS's performance and market conditions.
Watch forEarnings report shows big revenue growth or better margins.
Also watch forEarnings report shows falling revenue or margins.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows trust in cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend declared at $2.00 per share.
Worry ifDividend reduced below $2.00 per share.
Why it matters: Setting higher capacity goals shows they believe in future revenue and market needs.
Supportive ifManagement says the capacity goal is now more than $6 billion.
Worry ifCapacity goal remains at or below $6 billion.
Why it matters: Controlling costs in this range shows financial discipline. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifGAAP operating costs are between $252.7 million and $258.7 million.
Worry ifGAAP operating expenses are more than $258.7 million.
Why it matters: Paying this dividend signals strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $2.00 per share on July 15, 2026.
Worry ifThe company may cut or skip the dividend payment.