Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1223.86+0.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPWR
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,224 MPWR trades at 61× p/e, in line with its 49× p/e peer median — but our blended $895 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range and our valuation methods disagree. Analysts target $1,700–$2,100. Note: our $895 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($1,700–$2,100). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $1,603 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $2006.50 | — | — | Analyst | low |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $383.30 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | low |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $403.71 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | low |
| graham number | 12M | $188.78 | — | — | TTM | low |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$1700.00 – $2100.00 (median $2006.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-08-20
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 499% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 5.9 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $14.96/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $330.99 |
| 22.3 |
| 13.92 |
| TTM |
| low |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $553.86 | 46.6 | 11.89 | TTM | low |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $838.08 | 25.3 | 33.17 | ntm analyst | low |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $549.67 | 8.3 | 66.45 | TTM | low |
| PEG | 12M | $407.13 | 20.3 | 20.03 | TTM | low |
| residual income | 12M | $123.85 | — | — | TTM | low |
| triangulated | 12M | $1019.30 | 49.4 | 20.65 | Triangulated | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $842.35 | 46.6 | 18.08 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1158.93 | 25.3 | 45.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1145.02 | 8.3 | 138.42 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $932.33 | 20.3 | 45.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1114.01 | 46.6 | 23.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1532.69 | 25.3 | 60.66 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1514.28 | 8.3 | 183.05 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $1233.01 | 20.3 | 60.66 | Analyst | medium |