NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1272.81. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,273 MPWR trades at 68× p/e, below its 73× p/e peer median, but our blended $1,023 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range. Analysts target $1,500–$2,000. Note: our $1,023 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($1,500–$2,000). Not investment advice.
$1500.00 – $2000.00 (median $1750.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 565% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 8.4 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $14.19/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $1750.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $419.53 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $441.11 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $177.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $345.37 | 19.4 | 16.72 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $641.02 | 50.3 | 12.74 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $1381.56 | 73.4 | 18.83 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $629.60 | 10.5 | 60.05 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $431.58 | 22.9 | 18.83 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $1280.49 | 68.0 | 18.83 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $1408.78 | 73.4 | 19.20 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $974.91 | 50.3 | 19.38 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $2776.78 | 73.4 | 37.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1206.26 | 10.5 | 115.05 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $867.42 | 22.9 | 37.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $2573.63 | 68.0 | 37.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1289.32 | 50.3 | 25.63 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $3672.30 | 73.4 | 50.05 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1595.28 | 10.5 | 152.16 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $1147.16 | 22.9 | 50.05 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $3403.62 | 68.0 | 50.05 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
