Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Marqeta, Inc. (MQ)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.44-0.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.50 → 0.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MQ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA growth of 10-12% in Q2 2026 | A supporting condition in Marqeta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 10-12% YoY growth. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 10% in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with improving operating performance, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis state is watch: company momentum has strengthened, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort and confidence is medium.
The valuation evidence describes MQ as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative. The model also shows a sizable peer premium, so the valuation picture is mixed; the snapshot does not spell out exactly what investors expect. Priced-in fragility is low, with no fragility gates triggered.
Near term, management’s 2026 goals appear on track: revenue grew 17% year over year, gross profit grew 23%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 86% in the cited comparison. The full-year targets are 12–14% revenue growth, 10–12% gross-profit growth, and low-30% adjusted EBITDA growth. Earnings remain loss-making overall, and guidance cuts or erratic results are risks despite the low stated miss risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on MQ sustaining growth and improved profitability while closing its performance gap with industry peers. A guidance cut would weaken the case; rate cuts or steadier results from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop, though neither is assured.
Over the next 1–3 years, MQ’s improving execution supports a more constructive view, but loss-making earnings, elevated risk, and mixed valuation signals leave the thesis unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross profit rises 10%. |
| Improving |
| YoY gross profit growth falls below 10% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Strong executive leadership with key hires | A supporting condition in Marqeta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain strong leadership team. | Improving | Failure to retain or replace key executives | 1 key hire vs 0 departures New Chief Product Officer hired; Chief Accounting Officer resigned with CFO assuming interim duties. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 12% in 2026 | A primary condition in Marqeta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 12% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 7.88% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20267.882748 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.42 → $0.51 · observed estimates
$0.83B → $0.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.42 | $827,365,340 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.42 | $827,365,340 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.42 | $827,365,340 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.42 | $827,365,340 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.42 | $827,365,340 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.42 | $827,365,340 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.42 | $827,365,340 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.42 | $827,365,340 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.40 | $829,189,433 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.42 | $827,365,340 | 3 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.40 | $829,189,433 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.40 | $829,189,433 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.40 | $829,189,433 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.40 | $829,189,433 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.45 | $808,755,493 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.48 | $809,527,280 | 2 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.48 | $809,527,280 | 2 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.45 | $808,755,493 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.45 | $808,755,493 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.45 | $808,755,493 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.45 | $808,755,493 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.45 | $808,755,493 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.45 | $808,755,493 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.45 | $808,755,493 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.45 | $808,755,493 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.45 | $808,755,493 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.51 | $806,350,498 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.51 | $806,350,498 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.51 | $806,350,498 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.51 | $806,350,498 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.51 | $806,350,498 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.51 | $806,350,498 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.50 | $805,947,575 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.51 | $806,820,267 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.51 | $806,820,267 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.51 | $806,820,267 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.51 | $806,820,267 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.50 | $806,204,883 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.50 | $806,204,883 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.50 | $806,206,606 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.50 | $806,204,883 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.50 | $806,254,960 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.50 | $806,254,960 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.50 | $806,255,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.50 | $806,255,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.50 | $806,255,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.50 | $806,255,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.50 | $806,255,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.51 | $806,255,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.51 | $806,255,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.51 | $806,255,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.51 | $806,255,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.51 | $806,255,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.51 | $806,255,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.51 | $802,001,175 | 6 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.