Marqeta, Inc. (MQ)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put MQ beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Systems Software: fringe margins under pressure (2q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 17% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens strong on capital allocation, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 42% growth a year, above the roughly 14% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 26% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskMarqeta's payment volume growth must accelerate to justify its premium valuation. Revenue growth slowed to 8% in the latest quarter. The company beat its earnings estimate by a wide margin. It trades at 70 times earnings versus a 46 times peer median. The market is pricing in more growth than we forecast. Q4 guidance of 3% to 5% growth misses the 12% to 14% target. A take rate decline also threatens its profit targets. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% below where it trades. This read is provisional. Our standing thesis remains intact.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. MQ is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 14 analysts currently covering MQ (as of Nov 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare MQ with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Systems Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MQ next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Achieve adjusted EBITDA growth of mid-to-high 20s percent for 2026
Take rate decline directly threatens EBITDA growth targets.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.

Threatens: Achieve revenue growth of 12-14% for 2026
Guidance of 3-5% growth misses 12-14% target.

Stablecoin-backed card partnership could expand payment volume, though financial contribution and scale are unspecified.

Expansion in Europe supports revenue growth objectives.
New tools enhance market presence, boosting growth potential.