Marqeta, Inc. (MQ)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.60+4.49%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 41.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MQ — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-13
Chief Accounting Officer — Sarah Barkema: The Chief Accounting Officer resigned effective shortly after the filing, but the departure was voluntary and not due to disagreements regarding financial reporting or operations.
Why it matters: Marqeta guided to 5% to 7% Q3 gross profit growth. A result below 5% would miss that range.
Worry ifQ3 2026 gross profit growth is below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 gross profit growth is 5% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Marqeta reported GAAP profit in both Q1 and Q2. Another profit would extend that run; a loss would break it.
Watch forQ3 2026 GAAP net income is above $0.
Also watch forQ3 2026 GAAP net income is below $0.
Why it matters: TPV grew 32% in Q2, while revenue grew 17%. Slower volume growth could add pressure to sales growth.
Worry ifReported TPV growth falls below 30% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifReported TPV growth stays at 30% or higher year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Gibbons took the product role on August 31. Clear product launches or customer use would show progress under new leadership.
Watch forMarqeta names a new product launch or customer rollout led by Gibbons by the next two earnings reports.
Also watch forMarqeta reports no new product launch or customer rollout tied to her product plan by the next two earnings reports.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$184 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $414 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,598 loss on $10,000 · 26.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Marqeta guided to 20% to 25% Q3 adjusted EBITDA growth. A lower result would miss the range.
Worry ifQ3 2026 adjusted EBITDA growth is below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 adjusted EBITDA growth is 20% or higher year over year.