Marqeta, Inc. (MQ)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.58-2.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 69 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MQ — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-13
Chief Accounting Officer — Sarah Barkema: The Chief Accounting Officer resigned effective shortly after the filing, but the departure was voluntary and not due to disagreements regarding financial reporting or operations.
Why it matters: This growth shows Marqeta's plan to expand is working. It gives investors confidence about the future.
Supportive ifFull year 2026 revenue growth is reported at or above 12%.
Worry ifRevenue growth is reported below 12%.
Why it matters: This metric is vital for Marqeta's growth story. Slower growth could raise concerns about market demand.
Worry ifTotal Processing Volume growth reported below 30% for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal Processing Volume growth reported at or above 30% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New customer wins can show the effectiveness of the new CTO in driving innovation and growth.
Supportive ifThere will be news of at least one new big customer after May 18, 2026.
Worry ifNo new significant customer wins announced within three months after the CTO's start date.
Why it matters: The new CTO's leadership could lead to new ideas and better products, helping growth.
Supportive ifPositive news on tech improvements or new products linked to the new CTO.
Worry ifThere have been no big changes or new products since the CTO started.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$184 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,886 loss on $10,000 · 38.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new CTO could drive innovation and improve product offerings, impacting growth.
Watch forNew product launches or improvements are announced within six months.
Also watch forThere have been no big product updates or new ideas in the last six months.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program could show management's trust in the stock and finances.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of shares bought back under the $150 million buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the buyback program.
Why it matters: New leadership can shift company direction and impact performance. It is crucial for long-term growth.
Watch forPositive outcomes from the new CTO's strategy are reported within six months.
Also watch forNegative impacts or lack of progress from the new CTO's strategy are reported.
Why it matters: New products may boost growth and strengthen Marqeta's position in the market.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new product launch in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new product launches announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This may lead to new ideas and better products from Marqeta.
Supportive ifGood news or product launches from the new Chief Product Officer in six months.
Worry ifNo clear changes or new ideas in product strategy after the appointment.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it signals a slowdown in the sector.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Early buybacks may show that management trusts the stock and the company's health.
Supportive ifShare buybacks are starting under the $150 million program before the year ends.
Worry ifNo share buybacks announced or initiated by year-end.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows Marqeta is managing costs well while growing. It affects overall financial health.
Supportive ifGross profit growth for 2026 meets or exceeds 10%.
Worry ifGross profit growth falls below 10%.
Why it matters: This would indicate Marqeta is struggling to maintain its growth momentum. Investors are focused on revenue growth as a key indicator of the company's health.
Worry ifNet revenue growth for Q3 comes in below 6%.
Less concerning ifNet revenue growth for Q3 meets or exceeds 8%.
Why it matters: This shows Marqeta is not managing costs well as it grows. Adjusted EBITDA growth is key for checking profitability.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth for Q3 is reported below 20%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA growth for Q3 is reported at 25% or higher.
Why it matters: New product launches could enhance Marqeta's market position and drive growth. The new CPO's experience may lead to innovative offerings.
Supportive ifMarqeta starts new products six months after Eugenia Gibbons begins.
Worry ifNo new product launches are announced within six months after the CPO starts.
Why it matters: Starting share repurchases would show trust in the company's finances. It also shows a commitment to giving value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifMarqeta announces share buybacks have begun by Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo share buybacks are announced by the end of Q4 2026.