Moderna (MRNA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-07-07
$79.77-2.48%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Moderna aims for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. It plans to keep a strong cash position near $7.5 billion. The company is expanding its mRNA platform and launching new vaccines. These moves could help it recover from recent losses.
Moderna is losing money and cut its guidance recently. Operating costs rose sharply to $1.8 billion in Q1 2026. FDA scrutiny may delay key product approvals. These issues could hurt growth and cash flow.
The price is about 37% above our fair value near $58. Analysts expect 9% revenue growth. We see risks from losses and cost pressures not fully priced in.
Breaks if: Cash and investments fall below 7.0 billion USD
Moderna aims to maintain a strong cash position with projected year-end cash and investments.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash, cash equivalents and investments decreased from $8.1 billion in 2025-Q4 to $7.5 billion in 2026-Q1, reflecting challenges in maintaining the projected cash position. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the target.
“Year-end cash and investments for 2026 are now projected to be $4.5 to $5.0 billion.”
“Year-end cash and investments for 2026 are projected to be $5.5 to $6.0 billion.”
“Increases 2025 expected year-end cash balance by $0.5 billion - $1 billion to a range of $6.5 - $7.0 billion.”
Breaks if: Operating expenses rise above 1.8 billion USD per quarter
Moderna is focused on reducing GAAP operating expenses in 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating expenses increased from $1,158 million in 2025-Q1 to $1,777 million in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in managing costs. The trajectory shows limited progress towards expense reduction goals.
“Reiterates plan to deliver GAAP operating expense reductions in 2026.”
“The Company is also improving 2025 expected GAAP operating expenses by $200 million.”
“Improves 2025 expected GAAP operating expenses by $0.7 billion.”
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 4.2 billion USD in FY26
Moderna is focused on reducing GAAP operating expenses in 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating expenses increased from $1,158 million in 2025-Q1 to $1,777 million in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in managing costs. The trajectory shows limited progress towards expense reduction goals.
“Reiterates plan to deliver GAAP operating expense reductions in 2026.”
“The Company is also improving 2025 expected GAAP operating expenses by $200 million.”
“Improves 2025 expected GAAP operating expenses by $0.7 billion.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~9% in FY26
Moderna aims to achieve up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 compared to 2025.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $167 million in 2025-Q1 to $389 million in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 10% growth target. However, the trajectory shows mixed results due to the substantial net loss reported.
“Reiterates plan to deliver up to 10% revenue growth in 2026.”
“Moderna reiterates its target of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026.”
“The Company expects growth from the annualized impact of long-term partnerships... up to 10% revenue growth in 2026.”
“we expect to grow sales and deliver up to 10 percent revenue growth in 2026.”