Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$133.55-16.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.76 → 7.28 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 27 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 26 to 27; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MRVL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.06 per share | The company pays a steady dividend of $0.06 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut or suspension | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 1, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business with a durable premium tied to its AI and data center prospects. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and management execution is rated volatile.
MRVL is valued at a durable premium, with its premium versus peers measured at 1.25, and the valuation rating is expensive. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are ahead of what the evidence supports, even though the priced-in assessment is tagged justified and fragility is low.
Near term, recent results are strong: revenue rose 13.3% from the prior quarter, while data center growth reached 46% year over year, and management says AI-related bookings remain strong. The main execution risks include a recent earnings miss, a run of consecutive misses, and an ongoing CFO transition with limited evidence so far on how it is progressing. Over the multi-year view, continued AI and data center growth is the central support for the thesis.
A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the near-term case, while reaffirmed guidance would preserve an important support. The broader setup also depends on whether technology peers stabilize and whether interest-rate cuts provide a sector tailwind. Sustained growth in AI and data center demand, alongside a smooth CFO transition, would support the multi-year thesis.
The 1-to-3-year view is supported by strong recent growth and accelerating data center demand, but it remains a high-risk, expensive story with meaningful execution and expectations risks. The thesis hinges on guidance and continued delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Marvell Technology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 51.4%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 50% next quarter |
Gross margin: 53.14% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 51.4%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 28, 202653.137663 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $2.7 billion next quarter | Marvell is growing revenue strongly, with guidance raised to about $2.7 billion next quarter. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.4 billion next quarter | Revenue: $2.739B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.7 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 28, 20262,739,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.23 → $7.28 · observed estimates
$16.65B → $19.58B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.23 | $16,646,743,740 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.23 | $16,646,743,740 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.24 | $16,695,936,419 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.24 | $16,695,937,105 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.26 | $16,740,159,704 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.26 | $16,740,159,018 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.30 | $16,809,831,266 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.30 | $16,809,831,266 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.30 | $16,809,831,266 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.31 | $16,859,867,376 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.33 | $16,912,614,914 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.33 | $16,912,614,914 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.33 | $16,912,614,914 | 25 / 30 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.69 | $17,981,963,321 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.69 | $17,981,963,321 | 25 / 23 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.69 | $17,981,963,321 | 25 / 23 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.70 | $18,063,342,690 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.70 | $18,063,342,690 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.71 | $18,063,342,690 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.71 | $18,063,342,690 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.72 | $18,088,589,716 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.76 | $18,206,876,537 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.76 | $18,206,876,537 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.77 | $18,206,876,537 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.77 | $18,206,394,350 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.77 | $18,206,394,350 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.76 | $18,200,938,951 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.76 | $18,200,938,951 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.76 | $18,200,938,951 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.76 | $18,200,938,951 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.77 | $18,194,676,480 | 25 / 28 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.77 | $18,195,527,099 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.77 | $18,195,527,099 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.77 | $18,195,527,099 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.77 | $18,195,527,099 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.77 | $18,191,949,735 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.77 | $18,191,949,735 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.77 | $18,191,949,735 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.77 | $18,191,949,735 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.77 | $18,189,143,492 | 26 / 30 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.77 | $18,189,143,492 | 26 / 30 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.77 | $18,189,143,492 | 26 / 30 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.77 | $18,189,143,492 | 26 / 30 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.77 | $18,189,143,492 | 26 / 30 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.78 | $18,212,393,492 | 26 / 30 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.78 | $18,212,393,492 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.78 | $18,212,393,492 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.78 | $18,212,393,492 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.76 | $18,172,110,499 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.76 | $18,172,110,499 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.76 | $18,172,110,499 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.76 | $18,172,105,499 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.76 | $18,172,105,499 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.24 | $19,385,024,983 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.27 | $19,432,656,903 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.27 | $19,432,656,903 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.27 | $19,432,656,903 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.27 | $19,432,656,903 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.27 | $19,432,656,903 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.27 | $19,489,632,513 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.28 | $19,538,071,537 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.28 | $19,538,071,537 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.28 | $19,538,071,537 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.28 | $19,538,070,959 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.28 | $19,538,070,959 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.28 | $19,538,070,959 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.28 | $19,538,070,959 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.28 | $19,538,070,959 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.28 | $19,538,070,959 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.28 | $19,538,070,959 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.28 | $19,538,070,959 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.28 | $19,538,070,959 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.28 | $19,538,070,959 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.28 | $19,538,070,959 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.28 | $19,550,116,889 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.28 | $19,550,116,889 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.28 | $19,550,117,453 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.28 | $19,550,117,453 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.28 | $19,550,117,453 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.28 | $19,577,837,946 | 26 / 29 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.28 | $19,577,842,795 | 27 / 29 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 43 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 24 recorded
18 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.