Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$159.80-7.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRVL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 79.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
MRVL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 2, 2026, Marvell Technology, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Marvell ”) and Lumentum Holdings Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Lumentum ”) announced the entry into the Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”), by and among Marvell, Lumentum, Java Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Marvell (“ Merger Sub I ”) and Java Merger Sub II, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subs…
Why it matters: Management tied faster growth to custom products in the second half. Google’s TPU programs add a named customer link.
Supportive ifMarvell reports higher custom business revenue in the second half of fiscal 2027. Or it gives a specific revenue figure that shows growth.
Worry ifMarvell reports that custom business revenue did not grow faster in the second half. Or it delays the planned ramp.
Why it matters: The CFO is set to give advisory support through April 2027. A named successor and clear handoff would ease concern about the change.
Supportive ifMarvell names a new CFO and confirms the handoff is on track before the advisory period ends in April 2027.
Worry ifMarvell has not named a successor by April 2027, or reports a delay in the CFO handoff.
Why it matters: Marvell has declared the same quarterly dividend in recent updates. A cut would mark a change in its capital plans.
Worry ifMarvell declares a quarterly dividend below $0.06 per share. Or it skips a quarterly payment.
Less concerning ifMarvell declares a quarterly dividend of at least $0.06 per share.
Why it matters: Marvell set this target after record sales and strong data center demand. A miss would weaken that growth story.
Watch forOn December 1, fiscal Q3 revenue is at least $3.15 billion, the midpoint of guidance.
Also watch forOn December 1, fiscal Q3 revenue is below $2.99 billion, the low end of guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$348 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $812 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,950 loss on $10,000 · 49.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Data center sales grew 46% year over year in Q2. Slower growth would challenge the main driver of recent sales gains.
Watch forFiscal Q3 data center revenue grows at least 40% year over year.
Also watch forFiscal Q3 data center revenue growth falls below 30% year over year.